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Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

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  • Qinwen Li

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Yafeng Lu

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Yukuan Wang

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China)

  • Pei Xu

    (Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Chengdu 610041, China)

Abstract

Risk assessment lays a foundation for disaster risk reduction management, especially in relation to climate change. Intensified extreme weather and climate events driven by climate change may increase related disaster susceptibility. This may interact with exposed and vulnerable socioeconomic systems to aggravate the impacts and impede progress towards regional development. In this study, debris flow risk under climate change was assessed by an integrated debris flow mechanism model and an inclusive socioeconomic status evaluation. We implemented the method for a debris flow-prone area in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Based on the analysis of three general circulation models (GCMs)—Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1 (BCC_CSM), model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System, version 5 (MIROC5, and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4)—the water–soil process model was applied to assess debris flow susceptibility. For the vulnerability evaluation, an index system established from the categories of bearing elements was analyzed by principle component analysis (PCA) methods. Our results showed that 432 to 1106 watersheds (accounting for 23% to 52% of the study area) were identified as debris-flow watersheds, although extreme rainfall would occur in most of the area from 2007 to 2060. The distributions of debris flow watersheds were concentrated in the north and transition zones of the study area. Additionally, the result of the index and PCA suggested that most areas had relatively low socioeconomic scores and such areas were considered as high-vulnerability human systems (accounts for 91%). Further analysis found that population density, road density, and gross domestic production made great contributions to vulnerability reduction. For practical mitigation strategies, we suggested that the enhancement of road density may be the most efficient risk reduction strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Qinwen Li & Yafeng Lu & Yukuan Wang & Pei Xu, 2019. "Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:11:p:3199-:d:238189
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus Stoffel & Thomas Mendlik & Michelle Schneuwly-Bollschweiler & Andreas Gobiet, 2014. "Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 141-155, January.
    2. R. L. Ciurean & H. Hussin & C. J. Westen & M. Jaboyedoff & P. Nicolet & L. Chen & S. Frigerio & T. Glade, 2017. "Multi-scale debris flow vulnerability assessment and direct loss estimation of buildings in the Eastern Italian Alps," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 929-957, January.
    3. Liu, Yansui, 2018. "Introduction to land use and rural sustainability in China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-4.
    4. Thea Turkington & Alexandre Remaître & Janneke Ettema & Haydar Hussin & Cees Westen, 2016. "Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 293-305, July.
    5. P. Santi & K. Hewitt & D. VanDine & E. Barillas Cruz, 2011. "Debris-flow impact, vulnerability, and response," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 56(1), pages 371-402, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongde Kang & Jingming Hou & Yu Tong & Baoshan Shi, 2021. "A Hydrodynamic-Based Robust Numerical Model for Debris Hazard and Risk Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Fei Wang & Yongqiang Cao & Shuaibang Fan & Ruoning Zhang, 2022. "Study on the Identification and Classification of Key Influencing Factors of Debris-Flow-Prone Areas in Liaoning Province Based on Self-organizing Clustering and Sensitivity Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.

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