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Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world

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  • Carlos Yañez-Arenas
  • A. Townsend Peterson
  • Karla Rodríguez-Medina
  • Narayani Barve

Abstract

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health concern worldwide. In the Americas, ~300,000 bites occur annually, leaving 84,110–140,981 envenomings and 652–3466 deaths. Here, we modeled current and future snakebite risk using ecological niche models (ENMs) of 90 venomous snake taxa. Current snakebite risk predictions were corroborated by incidence data from eight regions/periods with different characteristics. Detailed projections of potential future range shifts on distributions of the medically most relevant species indicated that North American species’ ranges are likely to increase in the future, but mixed results were obtained for Latin American snakes. A likely expansion of overall risk area and an increase of rural population at risk were observed from a consensus model among future scenarios. Our study highlights the capacity of ENMs to provide detailed information on current and future potential distributions of venomous snakes, as well as useful perspectives on snakebite risk, at least broad scales. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:4:p:697-711
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1544-6
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    1. A. Townsend Peterson & Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta & Jeremy Bartley & Victor Sánchez-Cordero & Jorge Soberón & Robert H. Buddemeier & David R. B. Stockwell, 2002. "Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6881), pages 626-629, April.
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    5. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
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    7. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
    8. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A Townsend Peterson & Pierre Mokondoko & Octavio Rojas-Soto & Enrique Martínez-Meyer, 2014. "The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-9, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos A Bravo-Vega & Juan M Cordovez & Camila Renjifo-Ibáñez & Mauricio Santos-Vega & Mahmood Sasa, 2019. "Estimating snakebite incidence from mathematical models: A test in Costa Rica," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Sillero, Neftalí & Arenas-Castro, Salvador & Enriquez‐Urzelai, Urtzi & Vale, Cândida Gomes & Sousa-Guedes, Diana & Martínez-Freiría, Fernando & Real, Raimundo & Barbosa, A.Márcia, 2021. "Want to model a species niche? A step-by-step guideline on correlative ecological niche modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    3. Daniel Zacarias & Rafael Loyola, 2019. "Climate change impacts on the distribution of venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 195-207, January.

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