IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v161y2020i4d10.1007_s10584-020-02677-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential effects of climate change on a Neotropical frog genus: changes in the spatial diversity patterns of Leptodactylus (Anura, Leptodactylidae) and implications for their conservation

Author

Listed:
  • Regina Gabriela Medina

    (Horco Molle, Yerba Buena
    Facultad de Ciencias Naturales)

  • Andrés Lira-Noriega

    (Instituto de Ecología, A.C.)

  • Ezequiel Aráoz

    (Horco Molle, Yerba Buena
    Facultad de Ciencias Naturales, U.N.T)

  • María Laura Ponssa

    (Unidad Ejecutora Lillo (CONICET-Fundación Miguel Lillo))

Abstract

Climate change and habitat loss are key threats to biodiversity, by acting as controlling factors of species’ distributions. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling with an innovative range-diversity analysis, which simultaneously addresses geographical ranges and species richness, to describe current biodiversity distribution patterns of Leptodactylus frogs, and to evaluate their expected changes under climate change scenarios. The genus Leptodactylus is distributed across 13.4 million km2 from Mexico to central Argentina, with overall good-quality presence records and a robust phylogeny. The highest species richness occurred in the Amazonian Forests of Bolivia and Peru, while the lowest species richness was observed in the latitudinal limits of the genus distribution. The range sizes of individual species exhibited a unimodal frequency pattern, with many small ranges and few large ranges. The dispersion field allowed us to identify the Caatinga as a “coldspot,” i.e., a site with few species of restricted range size, and the moist forest from Bolivia as a site with many species of medium-size ranges. Under climate change, we expect to observe a general decrease and a geographic displacement of the specific range sizes, but no species extinctions. These patterns imply a decrease in local species richness, which contrasts with a regional increase of biotic heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Regina Gabriela Medina & Andrés Lira-Noriega & Ezequiel Aráoz & María Laura Ponssa, 2020. "Potential effects of climate change on a Neotropical frog genus: changes in the spatial diversity patterns of Leptodactylus (Anura, Leptodactylidae) and implications for their conservation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 535-553, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02677-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02677-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02677-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02677-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    2. Unknown, 1967. "Index," 1967 Conference, August 21-30, 1967, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia 209796, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. A. Townsend Peterson & Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta & Jeremy Bartley & Victor Sánchez-Cordero & Jorge Soberón & Robert H. Buddemeier & David R. B. Stockwell, 2002. "Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6881), pages 626-629, April.
    4. Barve, Narayani & Barve, Vijay & Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto & Lira-Noriega, Andrés & Maher, Sean P. & Peterson, A. Townsend & Soberón, Jorge & Villalobos, Fabricio, 2011. "The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1810-1819.
    5. Jeremy T. Kerr & Laurence Packer, 1997. "Habitat heterogeneity as a determinant of mammal species richness in high-energy regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 385(6613), pages 252-254, January.
    6. Jeff. E. Houlahan & C. Scott Findlay & Benedikt R. Schmidt & Andrea H. Meyer & Sergius L. Kuzmin, 2000. "Quantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines," Nature, Nature, vol. 404(6779), pages 752-755, April.
    7. Jorge Soberón & Gerardo Ceballos, 2011. "Species Richness and Range Size of the Terrestrial Mammals of the World: Biological Signal within Mathematical Constraints," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(5), pages 1-12, May.
    8. Pavoine, Sandrine & Ollier, Sébastien & Pontier, Dominique & Chessel, Daniel, 2008. "Testing for phylogenetic signal in phenotypic traits: New matrices of phylogenetic proximities," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 79-91.
    9. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David A. Prieto-Torres & Luis A. Sánchez-González & Marco F. Ortiz-Ramírez & Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores & Erick A. García-Trejo & Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza, 2021. "Climate warming affects spatio-temporal biodiversity patterns of a highly vulnerable Neotropical avifauna," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-20, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    2. Herkt, K. Matthias B. & Barnikel, Günter & Skidmore, Andrew K. & Fahr, Jakob, 2016. "A high-resolution model of bat diversity and endemism for continental Africa," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 9-28.
    3. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    4. Yinglian Qi & Xiaoyan Pu & Yaxiong Li & Dingai Li & Mingrui Huang & Xuan Zheng & Jiaxin Guo & Zhi Chen, 2022. "Prediction of Suitable Distribution Area of Plateau pika ( Ochotona curzoniae ) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, September.
    5. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A Townsend Peterson & Pierre Mokondoko & Octavio Rojas-Soto & Enrique Martínez-Meyer, 2014. "The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-9, June.
    6. Marianna V. P. Simões & Hanieh Saeedi & Marlon E. Cobos & Angelika Brandt, 2021. "Environmental matching reveals non-uniform range-shift patterns in benthic marine Crustacea," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Minerva Singh & Jessamine Badcock-Scruton & C. Matilda Collins, 2021. "What Will Remain? Predicting the Representation in Protected Areas of Suitable Habitat for Endangered Tropical Avifauna in Borneo under a Combined Climate- and Land-Use Change Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-14, March.
    8. David A. Prieto-Torres & Luis A. Sánchez-González & Marco F. Ortiz-Ramírez & Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores & Erick A. García-Trejo & Adolfo G. Navarro-Sigüenza, 2021. "Climate warming affects spatio-temporal biodiversity patterns of a highly vulnerable Neotropical avifauna," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-20, April.
    9. Carlos Mestanza-Ramón & Robinson J. Herrera Feijoo & Cristhian Chicaiza-Ortiz & Isabel Domínguez Gaibor & Rubén G. Mateo, 2021. "Estimation of Current and Future Suitable Areas for Tapirus pinchaque in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-14, October.
    10. Wan-Yi Zhao & Zhong-Cheng Liu & Shi Shi & Jie-Lan Li & Ke-Wang Xu & Kang-You Huang & Zhi-Hui Chen & Ya-Rong Wang & Cui-Ying Huang & Yan Wang & Jing-Rui Chen & Xian-Ling Sun & Wen-Xing Liang & Wei Guo , 2024. "Landform and lithospheric development contribute to the assembly of mountain floras in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Azuaje-Rodríguez, Roxiris A. & Silva, Sofia Marques & Carlos, Caio J., 2022. "Not going with the flow: Ecological niche of a migratory seabird, the South American Tern Sterna hirundinacea," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 463(C).
    12. Owens, Hannah L. & Campbell, Lindsay P. & Dornak, L. Lynnette & Saupe, Erin E. & Barve, Narayani & Soberón, Jorge & Ingenloff, Kate & Lira-Noriega, Andrés & Hensz, Christopher M. & Myers, Corinne E. &, 2013. "Constraints on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 263(C), pages 10-18.
    13. José-Silva, Leandro & dos Santos, Reginaldo Carvalho & de Lima, Bruna Martins & Lima, Mendelson & de Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco & Teodoro, Paulo Eduardo & Eisenlohr, Pedro V. & da Silva Junior, C, 2018. "Improving the validation of ecological niche models with remote sensing analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 22-30.
    14. Edgard David Mason-Romo & Ariel A Farías & Gerardo Ceballos, 2017. "Two decades of climate driving the dynamics of functional and taxonomic diversity of a tropical small mammal community in western Mexico," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-25, December.
    15. Stefan Vilges de Oliveira & Luis E Escobar & A Townsend Peterson & Rodrigo Gurgel-Gonçalves, 2013. "Potential Geographic Distribution of Hantavirus Reservoirs in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-1, December.
    16. Laxmi D. Bhatta & Sunita Chaudhary & Anju Pandit & Himlal Baral & Partha J. Das & Nigel E. Stork, 2016. "Ecosystem Service Changes and Livelihood Impacts in the Maguri-Motapung Wetlands of Assam, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.
    17. Vimercati, Giovanni & Hui, Cang & Davies, Sarah J. & Measey, G. John, 2017. "Integrating age structured and landscape resistance models to disentangle invasion dynamics of a pond-breeding anuran," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 356(C), pages 104-116.
    18. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Maeda, Eduardo Eiji & Clark, Barnaby J.F. & Pellikka, Petri & Siljander, Mika, 2010. "Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 609-620, November.
    20. Chomitz, Kenneth M. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Brandão, Antônio Salazar P., 2005. "The economic and environmental impact of trade in forest reserve obligations: a simulation analysis of options for dealing with habitat heterogeneity," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 43(4), January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:161:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02677-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.