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Estimating snakebite incidence from mathematical models: A test in Costa Rica

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  • Carlos A Bravo-Vega
  • Juan M Cordovez
  • Camila Renjifo-Ibáñez
  • Mauricio Santos-Vega
  • Mahmood Sasa

Abstract

Background: Snakebite envenoming is a neglected public health challenge that affects mostly economically deprived communities who inhabit tropical regions. In these regions, snakebite incidence data is not always reliable, and access to health care is scare and heterogeneous. Thus, addressing the problem of snakebite effectively requires an understanding of how spatial heterogeneity in snakebite is associated with human demographics and snakes’ distribution. Here, we use a mathematical model to address the determinants of spatial heterogeneity in snakebite and we estimate snakebite incidence in a tropical country such as Costa Rica. Methods and findings: We combined a mathematical model that follows the law of mass action, where the incidence is proportional to the exposed human population and the venomous snake population, with a spatiotemporal dataset of snakebite incidence (Data from year 1990 to 2007 for 193 districts) in Costa Rica. This country harbors one of the most dangerous venomous snakes, which is the Terciopelo (Bothrops asper, Garman, 1884). We estimated B. asper distribution using a maximum entropy algorithm, and its abundance was estimated based on field data. Then, the model was adjusted to the data using a lineal regression with the reported incidence. We found a significant positive correlation (R2 = 0.66, p-value

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A Bravo-Vega & Juan M Cordovez & Camila Renjifo-Ibáñez & Mauricio Santos-Vega & Mahmood Sasa, 2019. "Estimating snakebite incidence from mathematical models: A test in Costa Rica," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0007914
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007914
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    References listed on IDEAS

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