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The Political Economy of Populism: An Empirical Investigation

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  • Petar Stankov

    (University of National and World Economy)

Abstract

Various macro-shocks arguably affect the demand for populism. However, there is no evidence beyond a few case studies. I expand electoral data on left- and right-wing populism and link them with per capita income, inflation, unemployment, government expenditures, income inequality, migration, trade and financial openness, and natural resource rents. Negative shocks in some of those consistently predict a surge in populist votes, even in the presence of inherent populist cycles. Shocks also affect election outcomes of left-wing and right-wing populists differently. Finally, European and Latin American voters are still different, yet converging, in their post-crisis preferences for populism.

Suggested Citation

  • Petar Stankov, 2018. "The Political Economy of Populism: An Empirical Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(2), pages 230-253, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:compes:v:60:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1057_s41294-018-0059-3
    DOI: 10.1057/s41294-018-0059-3
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    Cited by:

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    2. Christopher Ball & Andreas Freytag & Miriam Kautz, 2019. "Populism-What Next? A First Look at Populist Walking-Stick Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 7914, CESifo.
    3. Gavresi, Despina & Litina, Anastasia, 2023. "Past exposure to macroeconomic shocks and populist attitudes in Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 989-1010.
    4. Ntentas, Raphael, 2021. "Quantifying political populism and examining the link with economic insecurity: evidence from Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Daryna Grechyna, 2024. "Technological Progress and Political Disengagement," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(2), pages 261-288, June.
    6. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    7. Sara Gottenhuber & Eric Mulholland, 2020. "Implementing the Sustainable Development Goals in Times of Rising Right-Wing Populism in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    8. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2021. "Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Güvercin, Deniz, 2022. "Digitalization and populism: Cross-country evidence," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Denis Ivanov, 2023. "Economic Insecurity, Institutional Trust and Populist Voting Across Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 461-482, September.
    11. Stöckl, Sebastian & Rode, Martin, 2021. "The price of populism: Financial market outcomes of populist electoral success," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 51-83.
    12. Raphael Ntentas, 2021. "Quantifying Political Populism and Examining the Link with Economic Insecurity: evidence from Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 165, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    13. Hartwell, Christopher A. & Devinney, Timothy M., 2024. "The demands of populism on business and the creation of “corporate political obligations”," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Left-wing populism; Right-wing populism; Political economy; Populist cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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