IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcd/mcddps/2023_01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Past Exposure to Macroeconomic Shocks and Populist Attitudes in Europe

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper explores the interplay between two dimensions of trust i.e., political and interpersonal trust, and the spread of COVID-19 in European regions. To undertake our analysis we combine sub-national (NUTS 1 regions) data for trust from ten consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey and data on COVID-19 measures, derived from the COVID-19 European Regional Tracker. Exploiting regional variation, we empirically establish that in places with a higher degree of political and interpersonal trust, the number of confirmed cases and deaths due to COVID-19 spread is lower. Our underlying hypothesis is that due to this higher level of trust, individuals tend to comply more with the policies promoted by national governments, thereby diminishing the COVID-19 spread and mortality rates in societies.

Suggested Citation

  • Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina & Sofia Tsitou, 2023. "Past Exposure to Macroeconomic Shocks and Populist Attitudes in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 2023_01, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jan 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2023_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwp.uom.gr/pdf/dp012023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Enrico Spolaore, 2013. "What Is European Integration Really About? A Political Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 125-144, Summer.
    2. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    3. Fouka, Vasiliki, 2019. "How Do Immigrants Respond to Discrimination? The Case of Germans in the US During World War I," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 405-422, May.
    4. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Orkun Saka & Cevat Giray Aksoy, 2024. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1683-1700.
    6. Luigi Guiso & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno & Helios Herrera, 2021. "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe," EIEF Working Papers Series 2112, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Sep 2021.
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Greif, Avner, 1989. "Reputation and Coalitions in Medieval Trade: Evidence on the Maghribi Traders," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 857-882, December.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    11. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Hans Philipp Hofmann, 2021. "An Old Plug and a New Virus: Effect of Public Corruption on the Covid-19 Immunization Progress," CESifo Working Paper Series 9307, CESifo.
    12. Abel Brodeur & Idaliya Grigoryeva & Lamis Kattan, 2021. "Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1321-1354, October.
    13. Arnstein Aassve & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie, 2018. "Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1896, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    14. Gerber, Alan S. & Gimpel, James G. & Green, Donald P. & Shaw, Daron R., 2011. "How Large and Long-lasting Are the Persuasive Effects of Televised Campaign Ads? Results from a Randomized Field Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(1), pages 135-150, February.
    15. Luigi Guiso & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno & Helios Herrera, 2021. "The Financial Drivers of Populism in Europe," EIEF Working Papers Series 2112, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Sep 2021.
    16. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    17. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    18. Tella, Rafael Di & Rotemberg, Julio J., 2018. "Populism and the return of the “Paranoid Style”: Some evidence and a simple model of demand for incompetence as insurance against elite betrayal," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 988-1005.
    19. Cevat Giray Aksoy & Antonio Cabrales & Mathias Dolls & Ruben Durante & Lisa Windsteiger, 2021. "Calamities, Common Interests, Shared Identity: What Shapes Social Cohesion in Europe?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9112, CESifo.
    20. Georgy Egorov & Konstantin Sonin, 2013. "A Political Theory of Populism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 771-805.
    21. Yuan, Hang & Long, Qinyi & Huang, Guanglv & Huang, Liqin & Luo, Siyang, 2022. "Different roles of interpersonal trust and institutional trust in COVID-19 pandemic control," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    22. Deopa, Neha & Fortunato, Piergiuseppe, 2021. "Coronagraben in Switzerland: Culture and social distancing in times of COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 857, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    23. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    24. Buchan, Nancy R. & Croson, Rachel T.A. & Solnick, Sara, 2008. "Trust and gender: An examination of behavior and beliefs in the Investment Game," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 68(3-4), pages 466-476, December.
    25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1divsbu8t888r9vqektjbmlqoa is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Ulrike Malmendier, 2021. "FBBVA Lecture 2020: Exposure, Experience, and Expertise: Why Personal Histories Matter in Economics [Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(6), pages 2857-2894.
    27. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    28. Neha Deopa & Piergiuseppe Fortunato, 2021. "Coronagraben in Switzerland: culture and social distancing in times of COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1355-1383, October.
    29. Ulrike Malmendier, 2021. "Exposure, Experience, and Expertise: Why Personal Histories Matter in Economics," NBER Working Papers 29336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Petar Stankov, 2018. "The Political Economy of Populism: An Empirical Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(2), pages 230-253, June.
    31. Martin Raiser & Indermit S. Gill, 2012. "Golden Growth : Restoring the Lustre of the European Economic Model," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6016.
    32. Paola Giuliano & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2014. "Growing up in a Recession," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 787-817.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina, 2024. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populism in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 2024_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2024.
    2. Sara Lamboglia & Massimiliano Stacchini, 2023. "On the drivers of financial literacy: the role of intergenerational mobility," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 766, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Despina Gavresi & Andreas Irmen & Anastasia Litina, 2023. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populist Attitudes in Europe," DEM Discussion Paper Series 23-10, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    4. Gubello, Michele, 2024. "Social trust and the support for universal basic income," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Andrea Fazio, 2024. "Protests, long-term preferences, and populism: Evidence from 1968 in Europe," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 920-944.
    6. Dautović, Ernest & Hsieh, Robin, 2024. "Government-guaranteed credit and populism," Working Paper Series 2993, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Despina Gavresi & Andreas Irmen & Anastasia Litina, 2023. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populist Attitudes in Europe," DEM Discussion Paper Series 23-10, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    2. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina, 2024. "Population Aging and the Rise of Populism in Europe," Discussion Paper Series 2024_07, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Jun 2024.
    3. Cerqua, A. & Ferrante, C. & Letta, M., 2021. "Electoral Earthquake: Natural Disasters and the Geography of Discontent," GLO Discussion Paper Series 790, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Arnstein Aassve & Gianmarco Daniele & Marco Le Moglie, 2018. "Never Forget the First Time: The Persistent Effects of Corruption and the Rise of Populism in Italy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1896, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Giuliano, Paola & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2024. "Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 17110, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Güvercin, Deniz, 2022. "Digitalization and populism: Cross-country evidence," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Chen, Shuai, 2020. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism: Evidence from Two Quasi-Natural Experiments in the United States," GLO Discussion Paper Series 652, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    9. Campos, Luciano & Casas, Agustín, 2021. "Rara Avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Orkun Saka & Cevat Giray Aksoy, 2024. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1683-1700.
    11. Eugenio Levi & Isabelle Sin & Steven Stillman, 2021. "Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties and the Role of External Shocks," Working Papers 21_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    12. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Tito Boeri & Prachi Mishra & Chris Papageorgiou & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2021. "Populism and Civil Society," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 863-895, October.
    14. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    15. Gian Italo Bischi & Federico Favaretto & Edgar J. Sanchez Carrera, 2022. "Long-term causes of populism," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 349-377, January.
    16. Chen, Shuai, 2023. "Unemployment, Immigration, and Populism," IZA Discussion Papers 16642, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Nowakowski, Adam, 2021. "Do unhappy citizens vote for populism?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Seabright, Paul & Gonnot, Jerome, 2021. "Establishment and Outsiders : Can Political Incorrectness and Social Extremism work as a Signal of Commitment to Populist Poli," CEPR Discussion Papers 15971, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Piergiuseppe Fortunato & Tanmay Singh & Marco Pecoraro, 2024. "From Rhetoric to Reality: How Ideology, History and Geography shape Populism's Economic Footprint," IRENE Working Papers 24-02, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    20. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Eichengreen, Barry & Saka, Orkun, 2020. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," IZA Discussion Papers 13351, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Marco Manacorda & Guido Tabellini & Andrea Tesei, 2022. "Mobile internet and the rise of political tribalism in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp1877, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Political Trust; Interpersonal Trust; Culture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2023_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodore Panagiotidis or Anastasia Litina (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.uom.gr/index.php?tmima=3 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.