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The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa

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  • Jean-Paul Azam

Abstract

A typical pattern of wealth redistribution seems to prevail, in some African countries, between rich and poor ethno-regional groups. A contract-theoretic model is presented for shedding some light on this phenomenon. The government promises a transfer to its potential opponent in return for not engaging in a civil war. The latter may break out because of the imperfect credibility of the government's commitment. This increases the cost of the required transfer of wealth, and may make it unfeasible. The model determines whether a military regime or a redistributive state prevails in a peaceful equilibrium. This depends on two parameters: (i) the relative fighting efficiency and (ii) the relative productivity of the two groups. The social cost of the different regimes is then compared, and their implications for aid policy are discussed. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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  • Jean-Paul Azam, 2006. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(1), pages 26-58, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:15:y:2006:i:1:p:26-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    2. Azam Jean-Paul, 2014. "The Birth of a Democracy: Homegrown Bicameralism in Somaliland," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 245-266, April.
    3. Pierre Andre & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2010. "Politics and the geographic allocation of public funds in a semi-democracy. The case of Ghana, 1996 - 2004," Working Papers halshs-00962698, HAL.
    4. Persson, Torsten & Besley, Tim, 2008. "The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Azam, Jean-Paul, 2010. "A State is Born: Transport Infrastructure and Democracy in Somaliland," TSE Working Papers 10-229, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Schroyen, Fred & Treich, Nicolas, 2016. "The power of money: Wealth effects in contests," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 46-68.
    7. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "Repression or Civil War?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 292-297, May.
    8. Azam, Jean-Paul, 2009. "Betting on Displacement: Oil, Violence, and the Switch to Civilian Rule in Nigeria," IDEI Working Papers 533, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    9. Pierre André & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2013. "Sitting on the fence: Pork-barrels and democratization under threat of conflict. The case of Ghana, 1996 - 2004," THEMA Working Papers 2013-24, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    10. Azam, Jean-Paul & Thelen, Véronique, 2014. "Did the Aid Boom Pacify Sub-Saharan Africa?: Ex-Post Evaluation Using a Near-Identification Approach," TSE Working Papers 14-544, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2019.
    11. André, Pierre & Mesplé-Somps, Sandrine, 2011. "The Allocation of Public Goods and National Elections in Ghana," MPRA Paper 29873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ivan Lopez Cruz & Gustavo Torrens, 2019. "The paradox of power revisited: internal and external conflict," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(2), pages 421-460, September.
    13. Avidit Acharya & Robin Harding & J. Andrew Harris, 2020. "Security in the absence of a state: Traditional authority, livestock trading, and maritime piracy in northern Somalia," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 32(4), pages 497-537, October.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12069 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5746 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Frédéric Gaspart & Pierre Pecher, 2019. "Ethnic Inclusiveness of the Central State Government and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 28(2), pages 176-201.
    17. Ishihara Akifumi & Singh Prakarsh, 2016. "Concessions and Repression in Conflict," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 865-899, April.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/12022 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Larissa Nawo & Désiré Avom & Kyle McNabb & Luc Nembot, 2019. "Unofficial sovereign wealth funds and duration in power in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-57, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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