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Risque politique et croissance en Afrique

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Paul AZAM
  • Jean-Claude BERTHELEMY

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

  • Stéphane CALIPEL

    (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI))

Abstract

On propose un modèle théorique simple dans lequel l'activité de rébellion de l'opposition est une fonction croissante des activités de prédation et de répression du gouvernement, et une fonction décroissante de ses activités de redistribution. Ces prédictions sont testées sur des données nationales africaines, au moyen d'un modèle probit, et ne sont pas rejetées. On montre enfin que le risque politique, entendu comme la probabilité de violence politique, a un effet négatif sur la croissance économique.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul AZAM & Jean-Claude BERTHELEMY & Stéphane CALIPEL, 1996. "Risque politique et croissance en Afrique," Working Papers 199624, CERDI.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1994. "The Political Economy of Growth: A Critical Survey of the Recent Literature," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 8(3), pages 351-371, September.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Özler, Sule & Roubini, Nouriel & Swagel, Phillip, 1996. "Political Instability and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-211, June.
    8. Sebastian Edwards & Guido Tabellini, 1991. "Political Instability, Political Weakness and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 3721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-841, July.
    10. Cukierman, Alex & Edwards, Sebastian & Tabellini, Guido, 1992. "Seigniorage and Political Instability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 537-555, June.
    11. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1995. "How to Pay for the Peace? A Theoretical Framework with References to African Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 83(1-2), pages 173-184, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kako Nubukpo & Pierre Janin, 2005. "Incertitudes et « jeux céréaliers » en Afrique de l'Ouest : quels enseignements politiques ?," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 46(184), pages 811-835.
    3. Zheng, Jingling & Li, Zeyun & Ghardallou, Wafa & Wei, Xuecheng, 2023. "Natural resources and economic performance: Understanding the volatilities caused by financial, political and economic risk in the context of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Asma Elmakki, 2018. "The Nexus Between Industrial Exports And Economic Growth In Tunisia: Empirical Analysis," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(2), pages 31-53, December.
    5. Azza ZIADI & Imen BHIBAH, 2016. "Gouvernance et croissance économique Application au cas des pays de l’UEMOA," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(2), pages 70-83, November.
    6. Jean-Paul Azam, 2006. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 15(1), pages 26-58, March.
    7. Azam, Jean-Paul & Mesnard, Alice, 2003. "Civil War and the Social Contract," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 115(3-4), pages 455-475, June.
    8. Frédéric PUECH, 2002. "Dépenses publiques d’éducation et instabilité politique : une application à la zone franc par un modèle d’Equilibre Général Calculable," Working Papers 200219, CERDI.
    9. Jean-Paul Azam, 2002. "Looting and Conflict between Ethnoregional Groups," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 131-153, February.
    10. Mallaye, Douzounet, 2009. "Reformes Monétaires Et Croissance Économique En Zone Cemac [Monetary Reforms And Economic Growth In Cemac Zone]," MPRA Paper 19621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anis Ochi & Yosra Saidi & Mohamed Ali Labidi, 2023. "Non-linear Threshold Effect of Governance Quality on Economic Growth in African Countries: Evidence from Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(4), pages 4707-4729, December.
    12. Lemmenicier, Bertrand & Tarbalouti, Essaid, 2007. "Risque politique,démocratie et dictature [Political Risk,democracy and dictatorship]," MPRA Paper 56247, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Aurelien, Njamen Kengdo Arsene & Nchofoung, Tii Njivukuh & Marcel, Takoulac Kamta & Jean-Claude, Kouladoum, 2019. "Non-linear effect of military spending on economic growth in Africa: A comparative study between stable and unstable countries," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 195-215.
    14. Hadhek Zouhaier & Kefi Mohamed Karim, 2012. "Democracy, Investment and Economic Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 233-240.
    15. Andrianady, Josué R. & Ranaivoson, Michel H. P., 2023. "Dynamiques ´Economiques à Madagascar : Lien entre Croissance, Crises et Stabilité Politique [Economic Dynamics in Madagascar: Exploring the Nexus between Growth, Crises, and Political Stability]," MPRA Paper 118266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mehlum, Halvor & Moene, Karl & Torvik, Ragnar, 2005. "Crime induced poverty traps," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 325-340, August.
    17. Imène Guetat, 2016. "Economic growth, government size and political instability," Post-Print hal-04097904, HAL.
    18. repec:jle:journl:199 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Philippe Hugon, 2003. "Les conflits armés en Afrique : mythes et limites de l'analyse économique," Revue Tiers Monde, Programme National Persée, vol. 44(176), pages 829-856.
    20. Azza ZIADI & Imen BHIBAH, 2016. "Gouvernance et croissance économique Application au cas des pays de l’UEMOA," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 7(2), pages 70-83, November.

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