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Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Jinglan Cui

    (Zhejiang University
    Zhejiang University)

  • Ouping Deng

    (Zhejiang University
    Sichuan Agricultural University)

  • Miao Zheng

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Xiuming Zhang

    (Zhejiang University
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Zihao Bian

    (Boston College
    Nanjing Normal University)

  • Naiqing Pan

    (Boston College)

  • Hanqin Tian

    (Boston College)

  • Jianming Xu

    (Zhejiang University
    Zhejiang University)

  • Baojing Gu

    (Zhejiang University
    Zhejiang University)

Abstract

Forests are invaluable natural resources that provide essential services to humanity. However, the effects of global warming on forest carbon and nitrogen cycling remain uncertain. Here we project a decrease in total nitrogen input and accumulation by 7 ± 2 and 28 ± 9 million tonnes (Tg), respectively, and an increase in reactive nitrogen losses to the environment by 9 ± 3 Tg for 2100 due to warming in a fossil-fueled society. This would compromise the global carbon sink capacity by 0.45 ± 0.14 billion tonnes annually. Furthermore, warming-induced inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles could widen the economic gap between the Global South and Global North. High-income countries are estimated to gain US$179 billion in benefits from forest assets under warming, while other regions could face net damages of US$31 billion. Implementing climate-smart forest management, such as comprehensive restoration and optimizing tree species composition, is imperative in the face of future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinglan Cui & Ouping Deng & Miao Zheng & Xiuming Zhang & Zihao Bian & Naiqing Pan & Hanqin Tian & Jianming Xu & Baojing Gu, 2024. "Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53518-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53518-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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