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Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance

Author

Listed:
  • Chao Yue

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Mengyang Xu

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Shu Tao

    (Southern University of Science and Technology
    Peking University)

  • Huizhong Shen

    (Southern University of Science and Technology)

  • Jinfeng Chang

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Wei Li

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Lei Deng

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Junhao He

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Yi Leng

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Yu Li

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Jiaming Wang

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Can Xu

    (China Geological Survey
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Han Zhang

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Pengyi Zhang

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Liankai Zhang

    (China Geological Survey
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Jie Zhao

    (Linyi University)

  • Lei Zhu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Unleashing the land sector’s potential for climate mitigation requires purpose-driven changes in land management. However, contributions of past management changes to the current global and regional carbon cycles remain unclear. Here, we use vegetation modelling to reveal how a portfolio of ecological restoration policies has impacted China’s terrestrial carbon balance through developing counterfactual ‘no-policy’ scenarios. Pursuing conventional policies and assuming no changes in climate or atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1980 would have led China’s land sector to be a carbon source of 0.11 Pg C yr−1 for 2001–2020, in stark contrast to a sink of 175.9 Tg C yr−1 in reality. About 72.7% of this difference can be attributed to land management changes, including afforestation and reforestation (49.0%), reduced wood extraction (21.8%), fire prevention and suppression (1.6%) and grassland grazing exclusion (0.3%). The remaining 27.3% come from changes in atmospheric CO2 (42.2%) and climate (−14.9%). Our results underscore the potential of active land management in achieving ‘carbon-neutrality’ in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Yue & Mengyang Xu & Philippe Ciais & Shu Tao & Huizhong Shen & Jinfeng Chang & Wei Li & Lei Deng & Junhao He & Yi Leng & Yu Li & Jiaming Wang & Can Xu & Han Zhang & Pengyi Zhang & Liankai Zhang &, 2024. "Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-54100-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54100-9
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