IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-54100-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance

Author

Listed:
  • Chao Yue

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Mengyang Xu

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Université Paris-Saclay)

  • Shu Tao

    (Southern University of Science and Technology
    Peking University)

  • Huizhong Shen

    (Southern University of Science and Technology)

  • Jinfeng Chang

    (Zhejiang University)

  • Wei Li

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Lei Deng

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Junhao He

    (Northwest A&F University
    Northwest A&F University)

  • Yi Leng

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Yu Li

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Jiaming Wang

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Can Xu

    (China Geological Survey
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Han Zhang

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Pengyi Zhang

    (Northwest A&F University)

  • Liankai Zhang

    (China Geological Survey
    Ministry of Natural Resources)

  • Jie Zhao

    (Linyi University)

  • Lei Zhu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Unleashing the land sector’s potential for climate mitigation requires purpose-driven changes in land management. However, contributions of past management changes to the current global and regional carbon cycles remain unclear. Here, we use vegetation modelling to reveal how a portfolio of ecological restoration policies has impacted China’s terrestrial carbon balance through developing counterfactual ‘no-policy’ scenarios. Pursuing conventional policies and assuming no changes in climate or atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1980 would have led China’s land sector to be a carbon source of 0.11 Pg C yr−1 for 2001–2020, in stark contrast to a sink of 175.9 Tg C yr−1 in reality. About 72.7% of this difference can be attributed to land management changes, including afforestation and reforestation (49.0%), reduced wood extraction (21.8%), fire prevention and suppression (1.6%) and grassland grazing exclusion (0.3%). The remaining 27.3% come from changes in atmospheric CO2 (42.2%) and climate (−14.9%). Our results underscore the potential of active land management in achieving ‘carbon-neutrality’ in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Yue & Mengyang Xu & Philippe Ciais & Shu Tao & Huizhong Shen & Jinfeng Chang & Wei Li & Lei Deng & Junhao He & Yi Leng & Yu Li & Jiaming Wang & Can Xu & Han Zhang & Pengyi Zhang & Liankai Zhang &, 2024. "Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-54100-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-54100-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-54100-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-54100-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xuejun Liu & Ying Zhang & Wenxuan Han & Aohan Tang & Jianlin Shen & Zhenling Cui & Peter Vitousek & Jan Willem Erisman & Keith Goulding & Peter Christie & Andreas Fangmeier & Fusuo Zhang, 2013. "Enhanced nitrogen deposition over China," Nature, Nature, vol. 494(7438), pages 459-462, February.
    2. Stephanie Roe & Charlotte Streck & Michael Obersteiner & Stefan Frank & Bronson Griscom & Laurent Drouet & Oliver Fricko & Mykola Gusti & Nancy Harris & Tomoko Hasegawa & Zeke Hausfather & Petr Havlík, 2019. "Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 °C world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 817-828, November.
    3. Zhen Yu & Shirong Liu & Haikui Li & Jingjing Liang & Weiguo Liu & Shilong Piao & Hanqin Tian & Guoyi Zhou & Chaoqun Lu & Weibin You & Pengsen Sun & Yanli Dong & Stephen Sitch & Evgenios Agathokleous, 2024. "Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Giacomo Grassi & Jo House & Werner A. Kurz & Alessandro Cescatti & Richard A. Houghton & Glen P. Peters & Maria J. Sanz & Raul Abad Viñas & Ramdane Alkama & Almut Arneth & Alberte Bondeau & Frank Dent, 2018. "Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(10), pages 914-920, October.
    5. Pierre Regnier & Laure Resplandy & Raymond G. Najjar & Philippe Ciais, 2022. "The land-to-ocean loops of the global carbon cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 603(7901), pages 401-410, March.
    6. Xiaoxin Zhang & Martin Brandt & Xiaowei Tong & Philippe Ciais & Yuemin Yue & Xiangming Xiao & Wenmin Zhang & Kelin Wang & Rasmus Fensholt, 2022. "A large but transient carbon sink from urbanization and rural depopulation in China," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 321-328, April.
    7. Yude Pan & Richard A. Birdsey & Oliver L. Phillips & Richard A. Houghton & Jingyun Fang & Pekka E. Kauppi & Heather Keith & Werner A. Kurz & Akihiko Ito & Simon L. Lewis & Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Anatoly S, 2024. "The enduring world forest carbon sink," Nature, Nature, vol. 631(8021), pages 563-569, July.
    8. Shilong Piao & Huijuan Nan & Chris Huntingford & Philippe Ciais & Pierre Friedlingstein & Stephen Sitch & Shushi Peng & Anders Ahlström & Josep G. Canadell & Nan Cong & Sam Levis & Peter E. Levy & Lin, 2014. "Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, December.
    9. Zhen Yu & Shirong Liu & Haikui Li & Jingjing Liang & Weiguo Liu & Shilong Piao & Hanqin Tian & Guoyi Zhou & Chaoqun Lu & Weibin You & Pengsen Sun & Yanli Dong & Stephen Sitch & Evgenios Agathokleous, 2024. "Author Correction: Maximizing carbon sequestration potential in Chinese forests through optimal management," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-1, December.
    10. Jinfeng Chang & Philippe Ciais & Thomas Gasser & Pete Smith & Mario Herrero & Petr Havlík & Michael Obersteiner & Bertrand Guenet & Daniel S. Goll & Wei Li & Victoria Naipal & Shushi Peng & Chunjing Q, 2021. "Climate warming from managed grasslands cancels the cooling effect of carbon sinks in sparsely grazed and natural grasslands," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. S. Tao & M. Y. Ru & W. Du & X. Zhu & Q. R. Zhong & B. G. Li & G. F. Shen & X. L. Pan & W. J. Meng & Y. L. Chen & H. Z. Shen & N. Lin & S. Su & S. J. Zhuo & T. B. Huang & Y. Xu & X. Yun & J. F. Liu & X, 2018. "Quantifying the rural residential energy transition in China from 1992 to 2012 through a representative national survey," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 567-573, July.
    12. Yude Pan & Richard A. Birdsey & Oliver L. Phillips & Richard A. Houghton & Jingyun Fang & Pekka E. Kauppi & Heather Keith & Werner A. Kurz & Akihiko Ito & Simon L. Lewis & Gert-Jan Nabuurs & Anatoly S, 2024. "Author Correction: The enduring world forest carbon sink," Nature, Nature, vol. 632(8026), pages 7-7, August.
    13. Chao Yue & Philippe Ciais & Richard A. Houghton & Alexander A. Nassikas, 2020. "Contribution of land use to the interannual variability of the land carbon cycle," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emily McGlynn & Serena Li & Michael Berger & Meredith Amend & Kandice Harper, 2022. "Addressing uncertainty and bias in land use, land use change, and forestry greenhouse gas inventories," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-25, January.
    2. Andy Gibson & Francesco Pomponi, 2025. "The Impact of Forest Management Success Rates on the Net Carbon Benefits of Using Timber in Construction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-16, February.
    3. André Sandim & Domingos Lopes & José Luis Louzada & Maria Emília Silva, 2025. "Influence of Thinning on Carbon Balance in Natural Regeneration of Pinus pinaster in Portugal," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-18, February.
    4. Li, Long & Huang, Xianjin & Yang, Hong, 2023. "Optimizing land use patterns to improve the contribution of land use planning to carbon neutrality target," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Jiaxin Sun & Liyu Ma & Jiaqi Xie & Tongxi Tian & Yina Yu, 2025. "Spillover Effects and Influencing Factors of Forest Carbon Storage in the Context of Regional Coordinated Development: A Case Study in Guangdong Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Renhui Zuo & Yan Ma & Ming Tang & Hao Luo & Junqin Li & Tao Liao & Yuanfang Gong & Shunfu Zhang & Jiyi Gong & Yin Yi, 2025. "Regional Carbon Storage Dynamics Driven by Tea Plantation Expansion: Insights from Meitan County, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    7. Selma Bultan & Julia E. M. S. Nabel & Kerstin Hartung & Raphael Ganzenmüller & Liang Xu & Sassan Saatchi & Julia Pongratz, 2022. "Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Anna M. Klepacka & Andrzej A. Romaniuk & Janusz Gajda & Ewa E. Chećko, 2025. "From Farms to Forests: An Exploration of Afforestation Efforts in Poland Under the Rural Development Programme (2007–2020)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Syed Ayyaz Javed & Muhammad Saleem Arif & Sher Muhammad Shahzad & Muhammad Ashraf & Rizwana Kausar & Taimoor Hassan Farooq & M. Iftikhar Hussain & Awais Shakoor, 2021. "Can Different Salt Formulations Revert the Depressing Effect of Salinity on Maize by Modulating Plant Biochemical Attributes and Activating Stress Regulators through Improved N Supply?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-16, July.
    11. Siyu Zhang & Zhe Ji & Wu Jiao & Chengbo Shen & Yaojun Qin & Yunzhi Huang & Menghan Huang & Shuming Kang & Xuan Liu & Shunqi Li & Zulong Mo & Ying Yu & Bingyu Jiang & Yanan Tian & Longfei Wang & Qingxi, 2025. "Natural variation of OsWRKY23 drives difference in nitrate use efficiency between indica and japonica rice," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    12. Wu, Shu & Han, Hongyun, 2022. "Energy transition, intensity growth, and policy evolution: Evidence from rural China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    13. Yang, Aoxi & Wang, Yahui, 2023. "Transition of household cooking energy in China since the 1980s," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    14. Chang, Huayi & Zhang, Junbiao, 2024. "Income growth versus labor loss: The joint impacts of rural-urban migration and off-farm employment on household energy use in rural China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Ke Xu & Chunmei Wang & Xintong Yang, 2017. "Five-year study of the effects of simulated nitrogen deposition levels and forms on soil nitrous oxide emissions from a temperate forest in northern China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Zhihua Liu & John S. Kimball & Ashley P. Ballantyne & Nicholas C. Parazoo & Wen J. Wang & Ana Bastos & Nima Madani & Susan M. Natali & Jennifer D. Watts & Brendan M. Rogers & Philippe Ciais & Kailiang, 2022. "Respiratory loss during late-growing season determines the net carbon dioxide sink in northern permafrost regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Koasidis, Konstantinos & Marinakis, Vangelis & Nikas, Alexandros & Chira, Katerina & Flamos, Alexandros & Doukas, Haris, 2022. "Monetising behavioural change as a policy measure to support energy management in the residential sector: A case study in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Renata Dagiliūtė & Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė, 2024. "Impact of Land-Use Changes on Climate Change Mitigation Goals: The Case of Lithuania," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    19. Huang, Suo & Bartlett, Paul & Arain, M. Altaf, 2016. "An analysis of global terrestrial carbon, water and energy dynamics using the carbon–nitrogen coupled CLASS-CTEMN+ model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 336(C), pages 36-56.
    20. Ru Fang, Yan & Zhang, Silu & Zhou, Ziqiao & Shi, Wenjun & Hui Xie, Guang, 2022. "Sustainable development in China: Valuation of bioenergy potential and CO2 reduction from crop straw," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-54100-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.