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Biofuels and Climate Change Mitigation: A CGE Analysis Incorporating Land-Use Change

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  • Govinda Timilsina
  • Simon Mevel

Abstract

The question of whether or not biofuels help mitigate climate change has attracted much debate in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model that explicitly represents land-use change impacts due to the expansion of biofuels, our study attempts to shed some light on this question. Our study shows that if biofuel mandates and targets currently announced by more than 40 countries around the world are implemented by 2020 using crop feedstocks and if both forests and pasture lands are used to meet the new land demands for biofuel expansion, this would cause net release of GHG emissions to the atmosphere until 2043 as the GHG emissions released through land-use change exceeds the reduction of emissions due to replacement of gasoline and diesel. On the other hand, if the use of forest lands is avoided by channeling only pasture lands to meet the demand for new lands, the net release of GHG emissions would cease by 2021, a year after the full implementation of the mandates and targets. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Govinda Timilsina & Simon Mevel, 2013. "Biofuels and Climate Change Mitigation: A CGE Analysis Incorporating Land-Use Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 1-19, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:enreec:v:55:y:2013:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1007/s10640-012-9609-8
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    1. Ronald D. Sands & Katja Schumacher & Hannah Forster, 2014. "U.S. CO2 Mitigation in a Global Context: Welfare, Trade and Land Use," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1_suppl), pages 181-198, June.
    2. Pogany, Peter, 2013. "Thermodynamic Isolation and the New World Order," MPRA Paper 49924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Weng, Yuwei & Chang, Shiyan & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Exploring the impacts of biofuel expansion on land use change and food security based on a land explicit CGE model: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 514-525.
    4. Jensen, Henning Tarp & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Shankar, Bhavani & Aekplakorn, Wichai & Basu, Sanjay & Cuevas, Soledad & Dangour, Alan D. & Gheewala, Shabbir H. & Green, Rosemary & Joy, Edward J.M. & , 2019. "Palm oil and dietary change: Application of an integrated macroeconomic, environmental, demographic, and health modelling framework for Thailand," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 92-103.
    5. Argueyrolles, Robin & Delzeit, Ruth, 2022. "The interconnections between Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and biofuels," Conference papers 333492, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Mochizuki, Junko & Coffman, Makena & Yanagida, John F., 2015. "Market, welfare and land-use implications of lignocellulosic bioethanol in Hawai'i," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 102-114.
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    9. Withers, Mitch R. & Malina, Robert & Barrett, Steven R.H., 2015. "Carbon, climate, and economic breakeven times for biofuel from woody biomass from managed forests," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 45-52.
    10. Britz, Wolfgang & Li, Jingwen & Shang, Linmei, 2021. "Combining large-scale sensitivity analysis in Computable General Equilibrium models with Machine Learning: An Example Application to policy supporting the bio-economy," Conference papers 333285, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Qu, Yang & Swales, J. Kim & Hooper, Tara & Austen, Melanie C. & Wang, Xinhao & Papathanasopoulou, Eleni & Huang, Junling & Yan, Xiaoyu, 2023. "Economic trade-offs in marine resource use between offshore wind farms and fisheries in Scottish waters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    12. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2023. "Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 99-123, January.
    13. Junko Mochizuki & John F. Yanagida & Makena Coffman, 2013. "Market, Welfare and Land-Use Implications of Lignocellulosic Bioethanol in Hawai�i," Working Papers 2013-10, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    14. Marquez, Gian Powell B. & Santiañez, Wilfred John E. & Trono, Gavino C. & Montaño, Marco Nemesio E. & Araki, Hiroshi & Takeuchi, Hisae & Hasegawa, Tatsuya, 2014. "Seaweed biomass of the Philippines: Sustainable feedstock for biogas production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1056-1068.
    15. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    16. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Ying & Li, Angfei, 2021. "Scenario analysis and assessment of China’s nuclear power policy based on the Paris Agreement: A dynamic CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    17. Ronald D. Sands, Katja Schumacher, and Hannah Forster, 2014. "U.S. CO2 Mitigation in a Global Context: Welfare, Trade and Land Use," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).

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