IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v228y2021ics0360544221007908.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario analysis and assessment of China’s nuclear power policy based on the Paris Agreement: A dynamic CGE model

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Tao
  • Ma, Ying
  • Li, Angfei

Abstract

In the 2016 Paris Agreement, which takes effect in 2020, China pledged to slow the growth of its carbon emissions and increase the share of nonfossil energy in its primary energy consumption. To comprehensively evaluate and compare the effects of different nuclear policies under the same background and compensate for the lack of policy comparisons in the field, this paper innovatively develops the traditional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of nuclear power and China’s economy into a dynamic general equilibrium model. We simulate and compare three different policies using the scenario analysis method: improving the level of technology (TC), implementing price subsidies (PS), and levying energy taxes (ET). These scenarios achieve different effects, and the following points can be drawn from the results. First, China should have strong confidence in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and the nuclear energy industry has a strong competitive advantage as new energy that can be promoted for development. Second, improving the level of science and technology to make the conversion efficiency reach 40% has the largest impact on the macro economy and a less impact on improving nuclear power generation in these scenarios. Third, government subsidy of 0.4 yuan/kWh have the largest impact on nuclear power generation while a less impact on the macro economy in these scenarios. Fourth, energy taxes have the largest impact on carbon dioxide emission reduction, while the least impact on increasing the share of nuclear power in these scenarios. Finally, we combine different nuclear power policies to meet the different development goals of the government.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Tao & Ma, Ying & Li, Angfei, 2021. "Scenario analysis and assessment of China’s nuclear power policy based on the Paris Agreement: A dynamic CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:228:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221007908
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120541
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544221007908
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2021.120541?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pauw, Kalie, 2003. "Functional Forms Used in CGE Models: Modelling Production and Commodity Flows," Background Paper Series 15606, PROVIDE Project.
    2. Bjerkholt, Olav & Førsund, Finn R. & Holmøy, Erling, 2016. "Commemorating Leif Johansen (1930–1982) and his pioneering computable general equilibrium model of 1960," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 415-420.
    3. Kat, Bora & Paltsev, Sergey & Yuan, Mei, 2018. "Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 84-96.
    4. Ojha, Vijay P. & Pohit, Sanjib & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2020. "Recycling carbon tax for inclusive green growth: A CGE analysis of India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Borozan, Djula, 2019. "Unveiling the heterogeneous effect of energy taxes and income on residential energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 13-22.
    6. Ana Maria Santacreu & Liliana Varela, 2018. "Innovation and the Patterns of Trade: A Firm-Level Analysis," 2018 Meeting Papers 303, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Erero, Jean Luc, 2019. "The Impact of the Dividend Tax in South Africa: A Dynamic CGE Model Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 185-208.
    8. Suraje Dessai & E. Schipper & Esteve Corbera & Bo Kjellén & María Gutiérrez & Alex Haxeltine, 2005. "Challenges and Outcomes at the Ninth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 105-124, June.
    9. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie & Zhang, Hongzhi, 2017. "The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 800-816.
    10. Elshkaki, Ayman, 2019. "Material-energy-water-carbon nexus in China’s electricity generation system up to 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Nong, Duy & Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2018. "Effects on the U.S. economy of its proposed withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: A quantitative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 621-629.
    12. Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa & Sayadi, Mohammad, 2020. "Tracking the sources of rebound effect resulting from the efficiency improvement in petrol, diesel, natural gas and electricity consumption; A CGE analysis for Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    13. Pradhan, Basanta K. & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2019. "Climate policy vs. agricultural productivity shocks in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework: The case of a developing economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 55-69.
    14. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    15. Govinda Timilsina & Simon Mevel, 2013. "Biofuels and Climate Change Mitigation: A CGE Analysis Incorporating Land-Use Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(1), pages 1-19, May.
    16. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Robinson, Sherman, 2002. "The influence of computable general equilibrium models on policy," TMD discussion papers 98, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    17. Tao Yi & Ling Tong & Mohan Qiu & Jinpeng Liu, 2019. "Analysis of Driving Factors of Photovoltaic Power Generation Efficiency: A Case Study in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, January.
    18. Lu, Chuanyi & Zhang, Xiliang & He, Jiankun, 2010. "A CGE analysis to study the impacts of energy investment on economic growth and carbon dioxide emission: A case of Shaanxi Province in western China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 4319-4327.
    19. Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M. & Morris, Jennifer F. & Babiker, Mustafa H., 2016. "Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 867-883.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Xianmei & Peng, Rui & Bai, Caiquan & Chi, Yuanying & Liu, Yuxiang, 2023. "Economic cost, energy transition, and pollutant mitigation: The effect of China's different mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    2. Hu, Haisheng & Zhao, Laijun & Dong, Wanhao, 2023. "How to achieve the goal of carbon peaking by the energy policy? A simulation using the DCGE model for the case of Shanghai, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    3. Xiaojun Lyu & Haiqian Ke, 2022. "Dynamic Threshold Effect of Directed Technical Change Suppress on Urban Carbon Footprint in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Weijiang Liu & Min Liu & Tingting Liu & Yangyang Li & Yizhe Hao, 2022. "Does a Recycling Carbon Tax with Technological Progress in Clean Electricity Drive the Green Economy?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Boonman, Hettie & Pisciella, Paolo & Reynès, Frédéric, 2024. "The macroeconomic impact of policy measures, technological progress and societal attitude in energy transition scenarios," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    6. Luo, Shihua & Hu, Weihao & Liu, Wen & Zhang, Zhenyuan & Bai, Chunguang & Huang, Qi & Chen, Zhe, 2022. "Study on the decarbonization in China's power sector under the background of carbon neutrality by 2060," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    7. Xiao, Kun & Yu, Bolin & Cheng, Lei & Li, Fei & Fang, Debin, 2022. "The effects of CCUS combined with renewable energy penetration under the carbon peak by an SD-CGE model: Evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    8. Hui, Jiuwu & Yuan, Jingqi, 2022. "Load following control of a pressurized water reactor via finite-time super-twisting sliding mode and extended state observer techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Okorie, David Iheke & Wesseh, Presley K., 2023. "Climate agreements and carbon intensity: Towards increased production efficiency and technical progress?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 300-313.
    10. Haisheng Hu & Wanhao Dong, 2022. "The Goal of Carbon Peaking, Carbon Emissions, and the Economic Effects of China’s Energy Planning Policy: Analysis Using a CGE Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-20, December.
    11. Xiaozhi Xiang & Li Peng & Yaxian Zhang, 2023. "Towards more sustainable diets: Insights from food production responses to diet transitions in China," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1951-1964, June.
    12. Li, Junjie & Yan, Yulong & Wang, Yirong & Zhang, Yifu & Shao, Lianwei & Li, Menggang, 2024. "Spatial-successive transfer of virtual scarcity water along China's coal-based electric chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    13. K. Ali Akkemik & Shinya Kato, 2023. "Estimating the economic and climate impacts of nuclear power in Turkey: hypothetical integration and dynamic CGE analysis," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 489-532, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Xianmei & Peng, Rui & Bai, Caiquan & Chi, Yuanying & Liu, Yuxiang, 2023. "Economic cost, energy transition, and pollutant mitigation: The effect of China's different mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    2. Yakut, Aykut Mert & de Bruin, Kelly, 2023. "The importance of having a more realistic welfare transfer determination rule: A CGE analysis for Ireland," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1310-1325.
    3. Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
    4. Erisa Dautaj Şenerdem & K. Ali Akkemik, 2020. "Evaluation of the reform in the Turkish electricity sector: a CGE analysis," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 389-419, August.
    5. Cepni, Oguzhan & Şensoy, Ahmet & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2024. "Climate change exposure and cost of equity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Nong, Duy & Simshauser, Paul & Nguyen, Duong Binh, 2021. "Greenhouse gas emissions vs CO2 emissions: Comparative analysis of a global carbon tax," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    7. Botero García, Jesús Alonso & Gonzalez-Auhing, Marcos & Hurtado Rendón, Álvaro, 2021. "Towards a low-emissions economy: The role of abatement targets and carbon taxes," Conference papers 333303, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Xiying, 2023. "Rethinking the equity and efficiency of carbon tax: A novel perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    9. Li, Yangfan & Zhang, Xiaoyun, 2023. "Recycling scheme of carbon pricing for inclusive decarbonization and energy transition: A recursive computable general equilibrium analysis in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    10. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2020. "The economic and emissions benefits of engineered wood products in a low-carbon future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Pogany, Peter, 2013. "Thermodynamic Isolation and the New World Order," MPRA Paper 49924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hanson, Kenneth & Somwaru, Agapi, 2003. "Distributional Effects of U.S. Farm Commodity Programs: Accounting for Farm and Non-Farm Households," Conference papers 331120, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Kat, Bora, 2023. "Clean energy transition in the Turkish power sector: A techno-economic analysis with a high-resolution power expansion model," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Argueyrolles, Robin & Delzeit, Ruth, 2022. "The interconnections between Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and biofuels," Conference papers 333492, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. David Klenert & Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Brian O’Callaghan, 2020. "Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 751-778, August.
    16. Agni Kalfagianni & Oran R. Young, 2022. "The politics of multilateral environmental agreements lessons from 20 years of INEA," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 245-262, June.
    17. Yan, Peiliang & Fan, Weijun & Han, Yu & Ding, Hongbing & Wen, Chuang & Elbarghthi, Anas F.A. & Yang, Yan, 2023. "Leaf-vein bionic fin configurations for enhanced thermal energy storage performance of phase change materials in smart heating and cooling systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    18. Li, Wei & Gao, Shubin, 2018. "Prospective on energy related carbon emissions peak integrating optimized intelligent algorithm with dry process technique application for China's cement industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 33-54.
    19. Gorbach, O.G. & Kost, C. & Pickett, C., 2022. "Review of internal carbon pricing and the development of a decision process for the identification of promising Internal Pricing Methods for an Organisation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Britz, Wolfgang & Li, Jingwen & Shang, Linmei, 2021. "Combining large-scale sensitivity analysis in Computable General Equilibrium models with Machine Learning: An Example Application to policy supporting the bio-economy," Conference papers 333285, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:228:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221007908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.