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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry

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  • Jiaze Sun

    (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

  • Huijuan Lee

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Jun Yang

    (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)

Abstract

This paper adopts the GDYN model to estimate the dynamic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global manufacturing industry and the value chain. Our simulation finds that (1) In the short run, the low-tech manufacturing industries will suffer greater shocks, with a decline of output growth in 2021 by 6.0%. The growth rate of the high-tech manufacturing industry showed an increasing trend of 3.7% in 2021. (2) In the post-epidemic period, the total manufacturing output will return to the baseline level, from which the growth rate of low-tech manufacturing will rebound, demonstrating a V-shaped development trajectory. (3) From the perspective of Global Value Chain (GVC), the participation in GVCs of manufacturers in countries along the Belt and Road, the European Union and the United States will weaken, while China’s manufacturing industry has witnessed an obvious improvement in export competitiveness. The import added value of China has decreased, which shows that its ability to meet domestic demand has been improving. This indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic is providing a crucial opportunity for China to upgrade its manufacturing value chain, which contributes to the accelerated construction of a new dual-cycle development pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiaze Sun & Huijuan Lee & Jun Yang, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Value Chain of the Manufacturing Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:22:p:12370-:d:675277
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    1. Hui Wang & Xin Zhong, 2023. "An Empirical Study on the Impact of Chinese OFDI on the Global Value Chain Positions of Countries Along the Belt and Road and Threshold Effects," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.
    2. Jin Fan & Hongshu Wang & Xiaolan Zhang, 2022. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Achieving the Goal of Stable Growth by China’s Market Expectations in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Peter Karacsony & Kornél Krupánszki & Imrich Antalík, 2022. "Analysis of the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on the Hungarian Employees," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-14, February.
    4. Huizheng Liu & Jingyi Zhang & Qi Han & Wenshen Pan & Muhammad Afaq Haider Jafri, 2022. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Stability of Enterprises Embedded in a Global Value Chain," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(2), pages 1-3.

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