IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/johsem/v7y2010i1p19n62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dixon Peter B

    (Monash University)

  • Lee Bumsoo

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Muehlenbeck Todd

    (University of Southern California)

  • Rimmer Maureen T.

    (Monash University)

  • Rose Adam

    (University of Southern California)

  • Verikios George

    (Monash University)

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:johsem:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:19:n:62
    DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1769
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1769
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1547-7355.1769?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Margaret Chitiga‐Mabugu & Martin Henseler & Ramos Mabugu & Hélène Maisonnave, 2021. "Economic and Distributional Impact of COVID‐19: Evidence from Macro‐Micro Modelling of the South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 82-94, March.
    2. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    4. Zaremba, Adam & Bianchi, Robert J. & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Long-run reversal in commodity returns: Insights from seven centuries of evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Joseph H. Cook, 2013. "Principles and standards for benefit–cost analysis of public health preparedness and pandemic mitigation programs," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 3, pages 110-152, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Philip C. Omoke, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic and financial innovations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3885-3904, August.
    7. Yiuman Tse & Brian C. McTier & John K. Wald, 2011. "Do Stock Markets Catch the Flu? We examine the impact of influenza on the U.S. stock market. A higher incidence of flu is associated with decreased trading, decreased volatility, and higher bid-ask sp," Working Papers 0004, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    8. Ahmed, S. Amer & Baris, Enis & Go, Delfin S & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2017. "Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance," Conference papers 332903, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Fan, Victoria Y & Jamison, Dean T & Summers, Lawrence H, 2018. "Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?," Scholarly Articles 35014363, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    10. Robert H. Beach & Christine Poulos & Subhrendu K. Pattanayak, 2007. "Farm Economics of Bird Flu," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 55(4), pages 471-483, December.
    11. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    12. Tiberiu Cristian Avrămescu, 2020. "Assessments on the Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Economies of the Central and South-East European Union Countries," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 105-112, August.
    13. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Barış, Enis & Go, Delfin S. & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2018. "Assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 148-160.
    14. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Marcus R. Keogh‐Brown & Simon Wren‐Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360, November.
    16. Percy Mkhosi & Ismail Fasanya, 2022. "Revisiting Interest Rate – Exchange Rate Dynamics in South Africa: How Relevant is Pandemic Uncertainties?," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(3), pages 435-457, September.
    17. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Ghasemi, Abdolrasoul & Boroumand, Yasaman & Shirazi, Masoud, 2020. "How do governments perform in facing COVID-19?," MPRA Paper 99791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Apr 2020.
    19. Muhammad Jawad & Zaib Maroof & Munazza Naz, 2021. "Impact of pandemic COVID‐19 on global economies (a seven‐scenario analysis)," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1897-1908, October.
    20. Ferchiou, Ahmed & Lhermie, Guillaume & Raboisson, Didier, 2021. "New standards in stochastic simulations of dairy cow disease modelling: Bio-economic dynamic optimization for rational health management decision-making," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    influenza epidemic; quarterly CGE model;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:johsem:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:19:n:62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.