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Collateral imbalances in intra-european trade? Accounting for the difference between gross and value added trade balances

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  • Stehrer, Robert
  • Nagengast, Arne J.

Abstract

One of the main stylised facts that has emerged from the recent literature on global value chains is that bilateral trade imbalances in gross terms can differ substantially from those measured in value added terms. However, the factors underlying the extent and sign of the differences between the two measures have so far not been investigated. Here, we propose a novel decomposition of bilateral gross trade balances that accounts for the differences between gross and value added concepts. The bilateral analysis contributes conceptually to the literature on double counting in trade by identifying the trade flow in which value added is actually recorded for the first time in international trade statistics. We apply our decomposition framework to the development of intra-EU27 trade balances from 1995-2011 and show that a growing share of intra-EU bilateral trade balances is due to demand in countries other than the two direct trading partners. JEL Classification: F1, F2, C67, R15

Suggested Citation

  • Stehrer, Robert & Nagengast, Arne J., 2014. "Collateral imbalances in intra-european trade? Accounting for the difference between gross and value added trade balances," Working Paper Series 1695, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141695
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global value chains; input-output tables; trade balances; value added; vertical specialisation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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