IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jforec/v4y2022i1p21-393d771880.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prevalence and Economic Costs of Absenteeism in an Aging Population—A Quasi-Stochastic Projection for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Patrizio Vanella

    (Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research, Epidemiology Department, 38124 Brunswick, Germany
    Chair of Empirical Methods in Social Science and Demography, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, University of Rostock, 18057 Rostock, Germany)

  • Christina Benita Wilke

    (Chair of Economics, Faculty of Economics, FOM University of Applied Sciences, Hochschulzentrum Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany)

  • Doris Söhnlein

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Forecasts and Macroeconomic Analyses Department, 90478 Nürnberg, Germany)

Abstract

Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom cohorts are still of working age, the working population will also age—and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend toward increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected to be close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Germany in the midterm.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrizio Vanella & Christina Benita Wilke & Doris Söhnlein, 2022. "Prevalence and Economic Costs of Absenteeism in an Aging Population—A Quasi-Stochastic Projection for Germany," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:21-393:d:771880
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/1/21/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/4/1/21/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    2. Singh-Manoux, A. & Guéguen, A. & Ferrie, J. & Shipley, M. & Martikainen, P. & Bonenfant, S. & Goldberg, M. & Marmot, M., 2008. "Gender differences in the association between morbidity and mortality among middle-aged men and women," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 98(12), pages 2251-2257.
    3. Patrizio Vanella & Philipp Deschermeier & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Patrizio Vanella & Christian Wiessner & Anja Holz & Gérard Krause & Annika Möhl & Sarah Wiegel & Berit Lange & Heiko Becher, 2022. "Pitfalls and solutions in case fatality risk estimation – A multi-country analysis on the effects of demographics, surveillance, time lags between case reports and deaths and healthcare system capacit," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 20(1), pages 167-193.
    5. Beznoska, Martin & Pimpertz, Jochen & Stockhausen, Maximilian, 2021. "Führt eine Bürgerversicherung zu mehr Solidarität? Eine Vermessung des Solidaritätsprinzips in der gesetzlichen Krankenversicherung," IW-Analysen, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, volume 127, number 143.
    6. Lusine Lusinyan & Leo Bonato, 2007. "Work Absence in Europe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(3), pages 475-538, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lanza Queiroz, Bernardo & Lobo Alves Ferreira, Matheus, 2021. "The evolution of labor force participation and the expected length of retirement in Brazil," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    2. Beata Gavurova & Viera Ivankova & Martin Rigelsky & Ladislav Suhanyi, 2020. "Impact of Gender Inequalities in the Causes of Mortality on the Competitiveness of OECD Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Laszlo Goerke, 2017. "Sick pay reforms and health status in a unionised labour market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(2), pages 115-142, May.
    4. Erik Biørn & Simen Gaure & Simen Markussen & Knut Røed, 2013. "The rise in absenteeism: disentangling the impacts of cohort, age and time," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1585-1608, October.
    5. Ziebarth, Nicolas R. & Karlsson, Martin, 2010. "A natural experiment on sick pay cuts, sickness absence, and labor costs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(11-12), pages 1108-1122, December.
    6. Daniel S. J. Lechmann & Claus Schnabel, 2014. "Absence from Work of the Self-Employed: A Comparison with Paid Employees," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 368-390, August.
    7. Aakvik, Arild & Holmås, Tor Helge & Kamrul Islam, M., 2010. "Does variation in general practitioner (GP) practice matter for the length of sick leave? A multilevel analysis based on Norwegian GP-patient data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 70(10), pages 1590-1598, May.
    8. García-Serrano, Carlos & Malo, Miguel A., 2009. "The impact of union direct voice on voluntary and involuntary absenteeism," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 372-383, March.
    9. Pedersen, Kjeld Møller, 2011. "Sickness absence and voluntary employer paid health insurance," DaCHE discussion papers 2011:4, University of Southern Denmark, Dache - Danish Centre for Health Economics.
    10. René Böheim & Thomas Leoni, 2011. "Firms’ moral hazard in sickness absences," NRN working papers 2011-10, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    11. Konstantinos, Pouliakas & Ioannis, Theodossiou, 2010. "An Inquiry Into the Theory, Causes and Consequences of Monitoring Indicators of Health and Safety At Work," MPRA Paper 20336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Stephanie Prümer & Claus Schnabel, 2019. "Questioning the Stereotype of the “Malingering Bureaucrat”: Absence from Work in the Public and Private Sector in Germany," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 570-603, November.
    13. Florian Dorn & Sahamoddin Khailaie & Marc Stoeckli & Sebastian C. Binder & Tanmay Mitra & Berit Lange & Stefan Lautenbacher & Andreas Peichl & Patrizio Vanella & Timo Wollmershäuser & Clemens Fuest & , 2023. "The common interests of health protection and the economy: evidence from scenario calculations of COVID-19 containment policies," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 67-74, February.
    14. Dorn, Florian & Lange, Berit & Braml, Martin & Gstrein, David & Nyirenda, John L.Z. & Vanella, Patrizio & Winter, Joachim & Fuest, Clemens & Krause, Gérard, 2023. "The challenge of estimating the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 interventions – Toward an integrated economic and epidemiological approach," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    15. Verónica Escudero, 2018. "Are active labour market policies effective in activating and integrating low-skilled individuals? An international comparison," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, December.
    16. Goerke, Laszlo & Pannenberg, Markus, 2015. "Trade union membership and sickness absence: Evidence from a sick pay reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 13-25.
    17. Cristini, Annalisa & Origo, Federica & Pinoli, Sara, 2017. "The healthy fright of losing a good one for a bad one," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 129-144.
    18. Ballering, Aranka V. & Bonvanie, Irma J. & Olde Hartman, Tim C. & Monden, Rei & Rosmalen, Judith G.M., 2020. "Gender and sex independently associate with common somatic symptoms and lifetime prevalence of chronic disease," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    19. Chartouni Carole & Holzmann Robert & Paez Gustavo N., 2020. "Not everyone is engaged: an innovative approach to measure engagement levels on the labor market," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, March.
    20. Pouliakas, Konstantinos & Theodoropoulos, Nikolaos, 2009. "Performance Pay as an Incentive for Lower Absence Rates in Britain," MPRA Paper 18238, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:21-393:d:771880. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.