Mortality Forecasting with the Lee–Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s10680-020-09559-9
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Han Lin Shang, 2012. "Point and interval forecasts of age-specific life expectancies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(21), pages 593-644.
- I. D. Currie & M. Durban & P. H. C. Eilers, 2006. "Generalized linear array models with applications to multidimensional smoothing," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(2), pages 259-280, April.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ryan Edwards, 2011.
"Variance in death and its implications for modeling and forecasting mortality,"
Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(21), pages 497-526.
- Shripad Tuljapurkar & Ryan D. Edwards, 2009. "Variance in Death and Its Implications for Modeling and Forecasting Mortality," NBER Working Papers 15288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
- Booth, H. & Tickle, L., 2008. "Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(1-2), pages 3-43, September.
- Ronald Lee & Timothy Miller, 2001. "Evaluating the performance of the lee-carter method for forecasting mortality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 537-549, November.
- Ugofilippo Basellini & Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting adult age-at-death distributions," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(1), pages 119-138, January.
- Vladimir Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Zhen Zhang & James Oeppen & James Vaupel, 2011. "Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 211-239, February.
- John Wilmoth & Shiro Horiuchi, 1999. "Rectangularization revisited: Variability of age at death within human populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 36(4), pages 475-495, November.
- Smits, Jeroen & Monden, Christiaan, 2009. "Length of life inequality around the globe," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1114-1123, March.
- Renshaw, A. E. & Haberman, S., 2000. "Modelling the recent time trends in UK permanent health insurance recovery, mortality and claim inception transition intensities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 365-396, December.
- Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Peter Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer & Jonathan Forster, 2015. "Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1059, June.
- Zhen Zhang & James W. Vaupel, 2009. "The age separating early deaths from late deaths," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- James Vaupel & Vladimir Romo, 2003. "Decomposing change in life expectancy: A bouquet of formulas in honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th birthday," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(2), pages 201-216, May.
- Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007.
"Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Md. Shahid Ullah, 2005. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Han Lin Shang & Heather Booth & Rob Hyndman, 2011. "Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(5), pages 173-214.
- Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
- José Manuel Aburto & Alyson van Raalte, 2018. "Lifespan Dispersion in Times of Life Expectancy Fluctuation: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2071-2096, December.
- Camarda, Carlo G., 2012. "MortalitySmooth: An R Package for Smoothing Poisson Counts with P-Splines," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 50(i01).
- Zhen Zhang & James W. Vaupel, 2009. "The age separating early deaths from late deaths," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(29), pages 721-730.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008.
"Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth, 2006. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Nan Li & Ronald Lee & Patrick Gerland, 2013. "Extending the Lee-Carter Method to Model the Rotation of Age Patterns of Mortality Decline for Long-Term Projections," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2037-2051, December.
- Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Coughlan, Guy D. & Khalaf-Allah, Marwa, 2011. "Bayesian Stochastic Mortality Modelling for Two Populations," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 29-59, May.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
- Suryo Adi Rakhmawan & Tahir Mahmood & Nasir Abbas & Muhammad Riaz, 2024. "Unifying mortality forecasting model: an investigation of the COM–Poisson distribution in the GAS model for improved projections," Lifetime Data Analysis: An International Journal Devoted to Statistical Methods and Applications for Time-to-Event Data, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 800-826, October.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
- Carlo G. Camarda & Ugofilippo Basellini, 2021. "Smoothing, Decomposing and Forecasting Mortality Rates," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(3), pages 569-602, July.
- Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2019. "Smooth constrained mortality forecasting," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(38), pages 1091-1130.
- Ricarda Duerst & Jonas Schöley & Christina Bohk-Ewald, 2023. "A validation workflow for mortality forecasting," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-020, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Booth, Heather, 2023. "Thirty years on: A review of the Lee–Carter method for forecasting mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1033-1049.
- Aburto, José Manuel & Kristensen, Frederikke Frehr & Sharp, Paul, 2021.
"Black-white disparities during an epidemic: Life expectancy and lifespan disparity in the US, 1980–2000,"
Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
- Aburto, Jose Manuel & Kristensen, Frederikke Frehr & Sharp, Paul, 2020. "Black-White Disparities During an Epidemic: Life Expectancy and Lifespan Disparity in the US, 1980-2000," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 512, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
- Aburto, José Manuel & Basellini, Ugofilippo & Baudisch, Annette & Villavicencio, Francisco, 2022. "Drewnowski’s index to measure lifespan variation: Revisiting the Gini coefficient of the life table," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-10.
- Basellini, Ugofilippo & Kjærgaard, Søren & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni, 2020. "An age-at-death distribution approach to forecast cohort mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 129-143.
- Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Søren Kjærgaard & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The impact of the choice of life table statistics when forecasting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(43), pages 1235-1268.
- Jos'e Manuel Aburto & Ugofilippo Basellini & Annette Baudisch & Francisco Villavicencio, 2021. "Drewnowski's index to measure lifespan variation: Revisiting the Gini coefficient of the life table," Papers 2111.11256, arXiv.org.
- Ainhoa-Elena Léger & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "What Can We Learn from the Functional Clustering of Mortality Data? An Application to the Human Mortality Database," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(4), pages 769-798, November.
- Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013.
"Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models,"
Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2011. "Coherent mortality forecasting: the product-ratio method with functional time series models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 1/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Rob J Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2011. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting The Product-ratio Method with Functional Time Series Models," Working Papers 201116, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
- Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
- Hong Li & Johnny Siu-Hang Li, 2017. "Optimizing the Lee-Carter Approach in the Presence of Structural Changes in Time and Age Patterns of Mortality Improvements," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(3), pages 1073-1095, June.
- José M. Aburto & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2017. "Lifespan dispersion in times of life expectancy fluctuation: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Ugofilippo Basellini & Søren Kjærgaard & Carlo Giovanni Camarda, 2020. "An age-at-death distribution approach to forecast cohort mortality," Working Papers axafx5_3agsuwaphvlfk, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
- José Manuel Aburto & Alyson van Raalte, 2018. "Lifespan Dispersion in Times of Life Expectancy Fluctuation: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2071-2096, December.
- Péter Vékás, 2020. "Rotation of the age pattern of mortality improvements in the European Union," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 1031-1048, September.
- Jose Manuel Aburto & Jesús-Adrián Alvarez & Francisco Villavicencio & James W. Vaupel, 2019. "The threshold age of the lifetable entropy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(4), pages 83-102.
- Henrik Brønnum-Hansen & Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos Espiñeira & Camila Perera & Ingelise Andersen, 2023. "Trends in mortality patterns in two countries with different welfare models: comparisons between Cuba and Denmark 1955–2020," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-28, June.
More about this item
Keywords
Mortality forecasting; Mortality smoothing; Lifespan disparity; LASSO;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:37:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s10680-020-09559-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.