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Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level

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  • Haben, Stephen
  • Giasemidis, Georgios
  • Ziel, Florian
  • Arora, Siddharth

Abstract

Short term load forecasts will play a key role in the implementation of smart electricity grids. They are required for optimising a wide range of potential network solutions on the low voltage (LV) grid, including the integration of low carbon technologies (such as photovoltaics) and the utilisation of battery storage devices. Despite the need for accurate LV level load forecasts, much of the literature has focused on the individual household or building level using data from smart meters, or on aggregates of such data. This study provides a detailed analysis of several state-of-the-art methods for both point and probabilistic LV load forecasts. We evaluate the out-of-sample forecast accuracies of these methodologies on 100 real LV feeders, for horizons from one to four days ahead. In addition, we also test the effect of the temperature (both actual and forecast) on the accuracy of load forecasts. We present some important results on the drivers of forecasts accuracy as well as on the empirical comparison of point and probabilistic forecast measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios & Ziel, Florian & Arora, Siddharth, 2019. "Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1469-1484.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1469-1484
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.10.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Papers 2405.17070, arXiv.org.
    2. Imani, Maryam, 2021. "Electrical load-temperature CNN for residential load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    3. Alfredo Candela Esclapez & Miguel López García & Sergio Valero Verdú & Carolina Senabre Blanes, 2022. "Automatic Selection of Temperature Variables for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Eva Lucas Segarra & Germán Ramos Ruiz & Vicente Gutiérrez González & Antonis Peppas & Carlos Fernández Bandera, 2020. "Impact Assessment for Building Energy Models Using Observed vs. Third-Party Weather Data Sets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    5. Jonathan Berrisch & Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2022. "High-Resolution Peak Demand Estimation Using Generalized Additive Models and Deep Neural Networks," Papers 2203.03342, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    6. Miguel López & Sergio Valero & Carlos Sans & Carolina Senabre, 2020. "Use of Available Daylight to Improve Short-Term Load Forecasting Accuracy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Park, Jungyeon & Alvarenga, Estêvão & Jeon, Jooyoung & Li, Ran & Petropoulos, Fotios & Kim, Hokyun & Ahn, Kwangwon, 2024. "Probabilistic forecast-based portfolio optimization of electricity demand at low aggregation levels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    8. He Jiang & Weihua Zheng, 2022. "Deep learning with regularized robust long‐ and short‐term memory network for probabilistic short‐term load forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1201-1216, September.
    9. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1197-1213.
    10. Marcelo Bruno Capeletti & Bruno Knevitz Hammerschmitt & Renato Grethe Negri & Fernando Guilherme Kaehler Guarda & Lucio Rene Prade & Nelson Knak Neto & Alzenira da Rosa Abaide, 2022. "Identification of Nontechnical Losses in Distribution Systems Adding Exogenous Data and Artificial Intelligence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-23, November.
    11. Kamal Chapagain & Somsak Kittipiyakul & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2020. "Short-Term Electricity Demand Forecasting: Impact Analysis of Temperature for Thailand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, May.
    12. Florian Ziel, 2020. "Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
    13. Haben, Stephen & Arora, Siddharth & Giasemidis, Georgios & Voss, Marcus & Vukadinović Greetham, Danica, 2021. "Review of low voltage load forecasting: Methods, applications, and recommendations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

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