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Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

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  • Herui Cui
  • Xu Peng

Abstract

Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Herui Cui & Xu Peng, 2015. "Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-10, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:jnlmpe:589374
    DOI: 10.1155/2015/589374
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    Cited by:

    1. Feras Alasali & Khaled Nusair & Lina Alhmoud & Eyad Zarour, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand and Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    2. Carolina Deina & João Lucas Ferreira dos Santos & Lucas Henrique Biuk & Mauro Lizot & Attilio Converti & Hugo Valadares Siqueira & Flavio Trojan, 2023. "Forecasting Electricity Demand by Neural Networks and Definition of Inputs by Multi-Criteria Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Paul Anton Verwiebe & Stephan Seim & Simon Burges & Lennart Schulz & Joachim Müller-Kirchenbauer, 2021. "Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-58, November.
    4. Feras Alasali & Husam Foudeh & Esraa Mousa Ali & Khaled Nusair & William Holderbaum, 2021. "Forecasting and Modelling the Uncertainty of Low Voltage Network Demand and the Effect of Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-31, April.

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