IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i2p190-d89745.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment of an Adaptive Load Forecasting Methodology in a Smart Grid Demonstration Project

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Vazquez

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, University Carlos III of Madrid, Avda de la Universidad 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Hortensia Amaris

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, University Carlos III of Madrid, Avda de la Universidad 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Monica Alonso

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, University Carlos III of Madrid, Avda de la Universidad 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Gregorio Lopez

    (Department of Telematic Engineering, University Carlos III of Madrid, Avda de la Universidad 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Jose Ignacio Moreno

    (Department of Telematic Engineering, University Carlos III of Madrid, Avda de la Universidad 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Daniel Olmeda

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, University Carlos III of Madrid, Avda de la Universidad 30, 28911 Madrid, Spain)

  • Javier Coca

    (Unión Fenosa Distribución, Avda. San Luis 77, 28033 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

This paper presents the implementation of an adaptive load forecasting methodology in two different power networks from a smart grid demonstration project deployed in the region of Madrid, Spain. The paper contains an exhaustive comparative study of different short-term load forecast methodologies, addressing the methods and variables that are more relevant to be applied for the smart grid deployment. The evaluation followed in this paper suggests that the performance of the different methods depends on the conditions of the site in which the smart grid is implemented. It is shown that some non-linear methods, such as support vector machine with a radial basis function kernel and extremely randomized forest offer good performance using only 24 lagged load hourly values, which could be useful when the amount of data available is limited due to communication problems in the smart grid monitoring system. However, it has to be highlighted that, in general, the behavior of different short-term load forecast methodologies is not stable when they are applied to different power networks and that when there is a considerable variability throughout the whole testing period, some methods offer good performance in some situations, but they fail in others. In this paper, an adaptive load forecasting methodology is proposed to address this issue improving the forecasting performance through iterative optimization: in each specific situation, the best short-term load forecast methodology is chosen, resulting in minimum prediction errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Vazquez & Hortensia Amaris & Monica Alonso & Gregorio Lopez & Jose Ignacio Moreno & Daniel Olmeda & Javier Coca, 2017. "Assessment of an Adaptive Load Forecasting Methodology in a Smart Grid Demonstration Project," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:190-:d:89745
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/2/190/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/2/190/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nantian Huang & Guobo Lu & Dianguo Xu, 2016. "A Permutation Importance-Based Feature Selection Method for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Using Random Forest," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2016. "Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Hernández, Luis & Baladrón, Carlos & Aguiar, Javier M. & Carro, Belén & Sánchez-Esguevillas, Antonio & Lloret, Jaime, 2014. "Artificial neural networks for short-term load forecasting in microgrids environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 252-264.
    4. Gregorio López & Pedro Moura & José Ignacio Moreno & José Manuel Camacho, 2014. "Multi-Faceted Assessment of a Wireless Communications Infrastructure for the Green Neighborhoods of the Smart Grid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-31, May.
    5. Yan Hong Chen & Wei-Chiang Hong & Wen Shen & Ning Ning Huang, 2016. "Electric Load Forecasting Based on a Least Squares Support Vector Machine with Fuzzy Time Series and Global Harmony Search Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Usman, Ahmad & Shami, Sajjad Haider, 2013. "Evolution of Communication Technologies for Smart Grid applications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 191-199.
    7. Luis Hernández & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Lorena Calavia & Belén Carro & Antonio Sánchez-Esguevillas & Francisco Pérez & Ángel Fernández & Jaime Lloret, 2014. "Artificial Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Arens & Karen Derendorf & Frank Schuldt & Karsten Von Maydell & Carsten Agert, 2018. "Effect of EV Movement Schedule and Machine Learning-Based Load Forecasting on Electricity Cost of a Single Household," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-19, October.
    2. Jinchao Li & Tianzhi Li & Liu Han, 2018. "Research on the Evaluation Model of a Smart Grid Development Level Based on Differentiation of Development Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, November.
    3. Ivana Kiprijanovska & Simon Stankoski & Igor Ilievski & Slobodan Jovanovski & Matjaž Gams & Hristijan Gjoreski, 2020. "HousEEC: Day-Ahead Household Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting Using Deep Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-29, May.
    4. Shahid Nawaz Khan & Syed Ali Abbas Kazmi & Abdullah Altamimi & Zafar A. Khan & Mohammed A. Alghassab, 2022. "Smart Distribution Mechanisms—Part I: From the Perspectives of Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-109, December.
    5. Orhan Altuğ Karabiber & George Xydis, 2019. "Electricity Price Forecasting in the Danish Day-Ahead Market Using the TBATS, ANN and ARIMA Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-29, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2016. "Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Yoldaş, Yeliz & Önen, Ahmet & Muyeen, S.M. & Vasilakos, Athanasios V. & Alan, İrfan, 2017. "Enhancing smart grid with microgrids: Challenges and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 205-214.
    3. Mohamed El-Hendawi & Hossam A. Gabbar & Gaber El-Saady & El-Nobi A. Ibrahim, 2018. "Control and EMS of a Grid-Connected Microgrid with Economical Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Barman, Mayur & Dev Choudhury, N.B. & Sutradhar, Suman, 2018. "A regional hybrid GOA-SVM model based on similar day approach for short-term load forecasting in Assam, India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 710-720.
    5. Ahmad Khan, Aftab & Naeem, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Qaisar, Saad & Anpalagan, Alagan, 2016. "A compendium of optimization objectives, constraints, tools and algorithms for energy management in microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1664-1683.
    6. Emilio Ghiani & Alessandro Serpi & Virginia Pilloni & Giuliana Sias & Marco Simone & Gianluca Marcialis & Giuliano Armano & Paolo Attilio Pegoraro, 2018. "A Multidisciplinary Approach for the Development of Smart Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-29, September.
    7. Yu, Lean & Wang, Zishu & Tang, Ling, 2015. "A decomposition–ensemble model with data-characteristic-driven reconstruction for crude oil price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 251-267.
    8. Happy Aprillia & Hong-Tzer Yang & Chao-Ming Huang, 2019. "Optimal Decomposition and Reconstruction of Discrete Wavelet Transformation for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Tansu Filik, 2016. "Improved Spatio-Temporal Linear Models for Very Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Singh, Priyanka & Dwivedi, Pragya & Kant, Vibhor, 2019. "A hybrid method based on neural network and improved environmental adaptation method using Controlled Gaussian Mutation with real parameter for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 460-477.
    11. Damilola Elizabeth Babatunde & Ambrose Anozie & James Omoleye, 2020. "Artificial Neural Network and its Applications in the Energy Sector An Overview," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 250-264.
    12. Bugała, A. & Zaborowicz, M. & Boniecki, P. & Janczak, D. & Koszela, K. & Czekała, W. & Lewicki, A., 2018. "Short-term forecast of generation of electric energy in photovoltaic systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 306-312.
    13. Karimi, M. & Karami, H. & Gholami, M. & Khatibzadehazad, H. & Moslemi, N., 2018. "Priority index considering temperature and date proximity for selection of similar days in knowledge-based short term load forecasting method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 928-940.
    14. Mahmud, Khizir & Town, Graham E. & Morsalin, Sayidul & Hossain, M.J., 2018. "Integration of electric vehicles and management in the internet of energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 4179-4203.
    15. Baris Yuce & Monjur Mourshed & Yacine Rezgui, 2017. "A Smart Forecasting Approach to District Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, July.
    16. Andrei M. Tudose & Irina I. Picioroaga & Dorian O. Sidea & Constantin Bulac & Valentin A. Boicea, 2021. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Convolutional Neural Networks in COVID-19 Context: The Romanian Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-19, July.
    17. Huiting Zheng & Jiabin Yuan & Long Chen, 2017. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using EMD-LSTM Neural Networks with a Xgboost Algorithm for Feature Importance Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Yuchun Li & Yinghua Han & Jinkuan Wang & Qiang Zhao, 2018. "A MBCRF Algorithm Based on Ensemble Learning for Building Demand Response Considering the Thermal Comfort," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-20, December.
    19. Tu, Chunming & He, Xi & Shuai, Zhikang & Jiang, Fei, 2017. "Big data issues in smart grid – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1099-1107.
    20. Alobaidi, Mohammad H. & Chebana, Fateh & Meguid, Mohamed A., 2018. "Robust ensemble learning framework for day-ahead forecasting of household based energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 997-1012.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:190-:d:89745. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.