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Short-Term Electrical Peak Demand Forecasting in a Large Government Building Using Artificial Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Jason Grant

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA)

  • Moataz Eltoukhy

    (Department of Kinesiology and Sport Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA)

  • Shihab Asfour

    (Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA)

Abstract

The power output capacity of a local electrical utility is dictated by its customers’ cumulative peak-demand electrical consumption. Most electrical utilities in the United States maintain peak-power generation capacity by charging for end-use peak electrical demand; thirty to seventy percent of an electric utility’s bill. To reduce peak demand, a real-time energy monitoring system was designed, developed, and implemented for a large government building. Data logging, combined with an application of artificial neural networks (ANNs), provides short-term electrical load forecasting data for controlled peak demand. The ANN model was tested against other forecasting methods including simple moving average (SMA), linear regression, and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARSplines) and was effective at forecasting peak building electrical demand in a large government building sixty minutes into the future. The ANN model presented here outperformed the other forecasting methods tested with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 3.9% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines MAPEs of 7.7%, 17.3%, and 7.0% respectively. Additionally, the ANN model realized an absolute maximum error (AME) of 8.2% as compared to the SMA, linear regression, and MARSplines AMEs of 26.2%, 45.1%, and 22.5% respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason Grant & Moataz Eltoukhy & Shihab Asfour, 2014. "Short-Term Electrical Peak Demand Forecasting in a Large Government Building Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:7:y:2014:i:4:p:1935-1953:d:34491
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Faria, P. & Vale, Z., 2011. "Demand response in electrical energy supply: An optimal real time pricing approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5374-5384.
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    2. Tartakovsky, Alexandre M. & Ma, Tong & Barajas-Solano, David A. & Tipireddy, Ramakrishna, 2023. "Physics-informed Gaussian process regression for states estimation and forecasting in power grids," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 967-980.
    3. Roman V. Klyuev & Irbek D. Morgoev & Angelika D. Morgoeva & Oksana A. Gavrina & Nikita V. Martyushev & Egor A. Efremenkov & Qi Mengxu, 2022. "Methods of Forecasting Electric Energy Consumption: A Literature Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-33, November.
    4. Le Cam, M. & Zmeureanu, R. & Daoud, A., 2017. "Cascade-based short-term forecasting method of the electric demand of HVAC system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1098-1107.
    5. Ng, Rong Wang & Begam, Kasim Mumtaj & Rajkumar, Rajprasad Kumar & Wong, Yee Wan & Chong, Lee Wai, 2021. "An improved self-organizing incremental neural network model for short-term time-series load prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    6. Luis Hernández-Callejo, 2019. "A Comprehensive Review of Operation and Control, Maintenance and Lifespan Management, Grid Planning and Design, and Metering in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-50, April.
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