IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v105y2017icp167-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Shengxi
  • Kocaman, Ayse Selin
  • Modi, Vijay

Abstract

For electric grids that rely primarily on liquid fuel based power generation for energy provision, e.g. one or more diesel gensets, measures to allow a larger fraction of intermittent sources can pay-off since the displaced is high cost diesel powered generation. This paper presents a case study of Sao Vicente, located in Cape Verde where a particularly high fraction of wind capacity of 5.950 MW (75% of the average demand) is installed, with diesel gensets forming the dispatchable source of power. This high penetration of intermittent power is managed through conservative forecasting and curtailments. Two potential approaches to reduce curtailments are examined in this paper: 1) an improved wind speed forecasting using a rolling horizon ARIMA model; and 2) energy storage. This case study shows that combining renewable energy forecasting and energy storage is a promising solution which enhances diesel fuel savings as well as enables the isolated grid to further increase the annual renewable energy penetration from the current 30.4% up to 38% while reducing grid unreliability. In general, since renewable energy forecasting ensures more accurate scheduling and energy storage absorbs scheduling error, this solution is applicable to any small size isolated power grid with large renewable energy penetration.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Shengxi & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 167-174.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:105:y:2017:i:c:p:167-174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014811631120X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2016.12.061?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sfetsos, A., 2002. "A novel approach for the forecasting of mean hourly wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 163-174.
    2. Selin Kocaman, Ayse & Abad, Carlos & Troy, Tara J. & Tim Huh, Woonghee & Modi, Vijay, 2016. "A stochastic model for a macroscale hybrid renewable energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 688-703.
    3. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    4. Al-Alawi, Ali & Islam, S.M, 2004. "Demand side management for remote area power supply systems incorporating solar irradiance model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(13), pages 2027-2036.
    5. Coelho, Vitor N. & Coelho, Igor M. & Coelho, Bruno N. & Reis, Agnaldo J.R. & Enayatifar, Rasul & Souza, Marcone J.F. & Guimarães, Frederico G., 2016. "A self-adaptive evolutionary fuzzy model for load forecasting problems on smart grid environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 567-584.
    6. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    7. Sfetsos, A., 2000. "A comparison of various forecasting techniques applied to mean hourly wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-35.
    8. Coelho, Vitor N. & Coelho, Igor M. & Coelho, Bruno N. & Cohen, Miri Weiss & Reis, Agnaldo J.R. & Silva, Sidelmo M. & Souza, Marcone J.F. & Fleming, Peter J. & Guimarães, Frederico G., 2016. "Multi-objective energy storage power dispatching using plug-in vehicles in a smart-microgrid," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 730-742.
    9. Rigo-Mariani, Rémy & Sareni, Bruno & Roboam, Xavier & Turpin, Christophe, 2014. "Optimal power dispatching strategies in smart-microgrids with storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 649-658.
    10. Malheiro, André & Castro, Pedro M. & Lima, Ricardo M. & Estanqueiro, Ana, 2015. "Integrated sizing and scheduling of wind/PV/diesel/battery isolated systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 646-657.
    11. Lazić, Lazar & Pejanović, Goran & Živković, Momčilo, 2010. "Wind forecasts for wind power generation using the Eta model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1236-1243.
    12. Aksoy, Hafzullah & Fuat Toprak, Z & Aytek, Ali & Erdem Ünal, N, 2004. "Stochastic generation of hourly mean wind speed data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(14), pages 2111-2131.
    13. Roulston, M.S. & Kaplan, D.T. & Hardenberg, J. & Smith, L.A., 2003. "Using medium-range weather forcasts to improve the value of wind energy production," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 585-602.
    14. Weisser, Daniel & Garcia, Raquel S., 2005. "Instantaneous wind energy penetration in isolated electricity grids: concepts and review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1299-1308.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Ozyoruk, Emin & Taneja, Shantanu & Modi, Vijay, 2020. "A stochastic framework to evaluate the impact of agricultural load flexibility on the sizing of renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 1067-1078.
    2. Andrea Micangeli & Riccardo Del Citto & Isaac Nzue Kiva & Simone Giovanni Santori & Valeria Gambino & Jeremiah Kiplagat & Daniele Viganò & Davide Fioriti & Davide Poli, 2017. "Energy Production Analysis and Optimization of Mini-Grid in Remote Areas: The Case Study of Habaswein, Kenya," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-23, December.
    3. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2017. "Decoupling Weather Influence from User Habits for an Optimal Electric Load Forecast System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Peker, Meltem & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Kara, Bahar Y., 2018. "Benefits of transmission switching and energy storage in power systems with high renewable energy penetration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1182-1197.
    5. Anderson, Benjamin & Rane, Jayaraj & Khan, Rabia, 2023. "Distributed wind-hybrid microgrids with autonomous controls and forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    6. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2018. "Quantile Regression Post-Processing of Weather Forecast for Short-Term Solar Power Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Surroop, Dinesh & Raghoo, Pravesh & Bundhoo, Zumar M.A., 2018. "Comparison of energy systems in Small Island Developing States," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 46-54.
    8. Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    9. Kang, Hyuna & Jung, Seunghoon & Lee, Minhyun & Hong, Taehoon, 2022. "How to better share energy towards a carbon-neutral city? A review on application strategies of battery energy storage system in city," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Feras Alasali & Husam Foudeh & Esraa Mousa Ali & Khaled Nusair & William Holderbaum, 2021. "Forecasting and Modelling the Uncertainty of Low Voltage Network Demand and the Effect of Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-31, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    2. Cadenas, Erasmo & Rivera, Wilfrido, 2010. "Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA–ANN model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2732-2738.
    3. Zhang, Yu & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2020. "Short-term wind power forecasting approach based on Seq2Seq model using NWP data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    4. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "A hybrid model for wind speed prediction using empirical mode decomposition and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 545-556.
    5. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    6. Akçay, Hüseyin & Filik, Tansu, 2017. "Short-term wind speed forecasting by spectral analysis from long-term observations with missing values," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 653-662.
    7. Jiani Heng & Chen Wang & Xuejing Zhao & Liye Xiao, 2016. "Research and Application Based on Adaptive Boosting Strategy and Modified CGFPA Algorithm: A Case Study for Wind Speed Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Cao, Qing & Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2012. "Forecasting wind speed with recurrent neural networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 148-154.
    9. Lahouar, A. & Ben Hadj Slama, J., 2017. "Hour-ahead wind power forecast based on random forests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 529-541.
    10. Sharifzadeh, Mahdi & Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra & Shah, Nilay, 2019. "Machine-learning methods for integrated renewable power generation: A comparative study of artificial neural networks, support vector regression, and Gaussian Process Regression," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 513-538.
    11. Erdong Zhao & Jing Zhao & Liwei Liu & Zhongyue Su & Ning An, 2015. "Hybrid Wind Speed Prediction Based on a Self-Adaptive ARIMAX Model with an Exogenous WRF Simulation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-20, December.
    12. A. Alexandridis & A. Zapranis, 2013. "Wind Derivatives: Modeling and Pricing," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 299-326, March.
    13. Coelho, Vitor N. & Weiss Cohen, Miri & Coelho, Igor M. & Liu, Nian & Guimarães, Frederico Gadelha, 2017. "Multi-agent systems applied for energy systems integration: State-of-the-art applications and trends in microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 820-832.
    14. Coelho, Vitor N. & Coelho, Igor M. & Coelho, Bruno N. & de Oliveira, Glauber C. & Barbosa, Alexandre C. & Pereira, Leo & de Freitas, Alan & Santos, Haroldo G. & Ochi, Luis S. & Guimarães, Frederico G., 2017. "A communitarian microgrid storage planning system inside the scope of a smart city," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 371-381.
    15. Zhao, Weigang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Su, Zhongyue, 2016. "One day ahead wind speed forecasting: A resampling-based approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 886-901.
    16. Feijóo, Andrés & Villanueva, Daniel, 2016. "Assessing wind speed simulation methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 473-483.
    17. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou & Zeng, Guowei, 2013. "A hybrid forecasting approach applied to wind speed time series," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 185-194.
    18. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    19. Zonggui Yao & Chen Wang, 2018. "A Hybrid Model Based on A Modified Optimization Algorithm and An Artificial Intelligence Algorithm for Short-Term Wind Speed Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-33, May.
    20. Ata, Rasit, 2015. "Artificial neural networks applications in wind energy systems: a review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 534-562.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:105:y:2017:i:c:p:167-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.