IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v187y2023ics0040162522007338.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimization of Short-Term Forecast of Electric Power Demand in the city of Yaoundé-Cameroon by a hybrid model based on the combination of neural networks and econometric methods from a designed energy optimization algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Dieudonné, Nzoko Tayo
  • Armel, Talla Konchou Franck
  • Hermann, Djeudjo Temene
  • Vidal, Aloyem Kaze Claude
  • René, Tchinda

Abstract

Electrical load forecasting has become a very important task for the management and planning of electrical energy. Several methods have been developed in the literature to solve this task, but researchers continue to search for a stable model that minimizes the prediction error as much as possible. In this article, we propose a hybrid model of artificial intelligence and statistical methods, designed from an optimization algorithm for hourly forecasts of electricity over a period of one week. To do this, we started with a comparative study of predictions with models of artificial neural networks (ANN), multiple linear regression (LRM) and Holt exponential smoothing (HES). Then we retained the best parameters of each model to design our hybrid model (ANN-LRM-HES). The results obtained by each model are considered acceptable in view of the statistical indicators. These results show that apart from Deep Learning techniques which offer excellent results the hybrid model (ANN-LRM-HES) provides the best prediction results, followed by the ANN, LRM and HES models respectively. From the comparative study it emerges that the proposed hybrid model outperformed most similar models in the literature on the subject, obtaining statistically significant precision values.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieudonné, Nzoko Tayo & Armel, Talla Konchou Franck & Hermann, Djeudjo Temene & Vidal, Aloyem Kaze Claude & René, Tchinda, 2023. "Optimization of Short-Term Forecast of Electric Power Demand in the city of Yaoundé-Cameroon by a hybrid model based on the combination of neural networks and econometric methods from a designed energ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:187:y:2023:i:c:s0040162522007338
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162522007338
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122212?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deb, Chirag & Zhang, Fan & Yang, Junjing & Lee, Siew Eang & Shah, Kwok Wei, 2017. "A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 902-924.
    2. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Despotovic, Milan & Nedic, Vladimir & Despotovic, Danijela & Cvetanovic, Slobodan, 2015. "Review and statistical analysis of different global solar radiation sunshine models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1869-1880.
    4. Soares, Lacir J. & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "Modeling and forecasting short-term electricity load: A comparison of methods with an application to Brazilian data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 630-644.
    5. Nima Amjady & Farshid Keynia, 2011. "A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-16, March.
    6. Zolfaghari, Mehdi & Golabi, Mohammad Reza, 2021. "Modeling and predicting the electricity production in hydropower using conjunction of wavelet transform, long short-term memory and random forest models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1367-1381.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feras Alasali & Husam Foudeh & Esraa Mousa Ali & Khaled Nusair & William Holderbaum, 2021. "Forecasting and Modelling the Uncertainty of Low Voltage Network Demand and the Effect of Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-31, April.
    2. Richter, Lucas & Lehna, Malte & Marchand, Sophie & Scholz, Christoph & Dreher, Alexander & Klaiber, Stefan & Lenk, Steve, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence for Electricity Supply Chain automation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Mohan, Neethu & Soman, K.P. & Sachin Kumar, S., 2018. "A data-driven strategy for short-term electric load forecasting using dynamic mode decomposition model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 229-244.
    4. Yizhen Wang & Ningqing Zhang & Xiong Chen, 2021. "A Short-Term Residential Load Forecasting Model Based on LSTM Recurrent Neural Network Considering Weather Features," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, May.
    5. Shangfu Wei & Xiaoqing Bai, 2022. "Multi-Step Short-Term Building Energy Consumption Forecasting Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis and Hybrid Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Diogo M. F. Izidio & Paulo S. G. de Mattos Neto & Luciano Barbosa & João F. L. de Oliveira & Manoel Henrique da Nóbrega Marinho & Guilherme Ferretti Rissi, 2021. "Evolutionary Hybrid System for Energy Consumption Forecasting for Smart Meters," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, March.
    7. Chaturvedi, Shobhit & Rajasekar, Elangovan & Natarajan, Sukumar & McCullen, Nick, 2022. "A comparative assessment of SARIMA, LSTM RNN and Fb Prophet models to forecast total and peak monthly energy demand for India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Iman Larki & Rahim Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    9. Umar Javed & Khalid Ijaz & Muhammad Jawad & Ejaz A. Ansari & Noman Shabbir & Lauri Kütt & Oleksandr Husev, 2021. "Exploratory Data Analysis Based Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting: A Comprehensive Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    10. Makade, Rahul G. & Chakrabarti, Siddharth & Jamil, Basharat & Sakhale, C.N., 2020. "Estimation of global solar radiation for the tropical wet climatic region of India: A theory of experimentation approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 2044-2059.
    11. Andrea Menapace & Simone Santopietro & Rudy Gargano & Maurizio Righetti, 2021. "Stochastic Generation of District Heat Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
    12. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "A Quantile Regression Model for Electricity Peak Demand Forecasting: An Approach to Avoiding Power Blackouts," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-067 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Dongjun Suh & Seongju Chang, 2012. "An Energy and Water Resource Demand Estimation Model for Multi-Family Housing Complexes in Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(11), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Alexandru Pîrjan & Simona-Vasilica Oprea & George Căruțașu & Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu & Adela Bâra & Cristina Coculescu, 2017. "Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-36, October.
    16. Rao, Congjun & Zhang, Yue & Wen, Jianghui & Xiao, Xinping & Goh, Mark, 2023. "Energy demand forecasting in China: A support vector regression-compositional data second exponential smoothing model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PC).
    17. Umut Ugurlu & Ilkay Oksuz & Oktay Tas, 2018. "Electricity Price Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, May.
    18. Ren, Simiao & Hu, Wayne & Bradbury, Kyle & Harrison-Atlas, Dylan & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Murray, Brian & Malof, Jordan M., 2022. "Automated Extraction of Energy Systems Information from Remotely Sensed Data: A Review and Analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    19. Jamil, Basharat & Akhtar, Naiem, 2017. "Comparison of empirical models to estimate monthly mean diffuse solar radiation from measured data: Case study for humid-subtropical climatic region of India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1326-1342.
    20. Batalla-Bejerano, Joan & Costa-Campi, Maria Teresa & Trujillo-Baute, Elisa, 2016. "Collateral effects of liberalisation: Metering, losses, load profiles and cost settlement in Spain’s electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 421-431.
    21. Miloš Božić & Miloš Stojanović & Zoran Stajić & Dragan Tasić, 2013. "A New Two-Stage Approach to Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:187:y:2023:i:c:s0040162522007338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.