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A Bottom-Up Approach to Lithium-Ion Battery Cost Modeling with a Focus on Cathode Active Materials

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Wentker

    (Institute of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy (IfbM), University of Münster, Leonardo-Campus 1, 48149 Münster, Germany)

  • Matthew Greenwood

    (Institute of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy (IfbM), University of Münster, Leonardo-Campus 1, 48149 Münster, Germany)

  • Jens Leker

    (Institute of Business Administration at the Department of Chemistry and Pharmacy (IfbM), University of Münster, Leonardo-Campus 1, 48149 Münster, Germany
    Helmholtz-Institute Münster (HIMS), 48149 Münster, Germany)

Abstract

In this study, we develop a method for calculating electric vehicle lithium-ion battery pack performance and cost. To begin, we construct a model allowing for calculation of cell performance and material cost using a bottom-up approach starting with real-world material costs. It thus provides a supplement to existing models, which often begin with fixed cathode active material (CAM) prices that do not reflect raw metal price fluctuations. We collect and display data from the London Metal Exchange to show that such metal prices, in this case specifically cobalt and nickel, do indeed fluctuate and cannot be assumed to remain static or decrease consistently. We input this data into our model, which allows for a visualization of the effects of these metal price fluctuations on the prices of the CAMs. CAMs analyzed include various lithium transition metal oxide-type layered oxide (NMC and NCA) technologies, as well as cubic spinel oxide (LMO), high voltage spinel oxide (LNMO), and lithium metal phosphate (LFP). The calculated CAM costs are combined with additional cell component costs in order to calculate full cell costs, which are in turn scaled up to full battery pack costs. Economies of scale are accounted for separately for each cost fraction.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Wentker & Matthew Greenwood & Jens Leker, 2019. "A Bottom-Up Approach to Lithium-Ion Battery Cost Modeling with a Focus on Cathode Active Materials," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:3:p:504-:d:203608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gert Berckmans & Maarten Messagie & Jelle Smekens & Noshin Omar & Lieselot Vanhaverbeke & Joeri Van Mierlo, 2017. "Cost Projection of State of the Art Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-20, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Stampatori & Pier Paolo Raimondi & Michel Noussan, 2020. "Li-Ion Batteries: A Review of a Key Technology for Transport Decarbonization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Greenwood, Matthew & Wentker, Marc & Leker, Jens, 2021. "A region-specific raw material and lithium-ion battery criticality methodology with an assessment of NMC cathode technology," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    3. Zang, Guiyan & Zhang, Jianan & Xu, Siqi & Xing, Yangchuan, 2021. "Techno-economic analysis of cathode material production using flame-assisted spray pyrolysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    4. Duffner, F. & Wentker, M. & Greenwood, M. & Leker, J., 2020. "Battery cost modeling: A review and directions for future research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    5. Oliver Heidrich & Alistair C. Ford & Richard J. Dawson & David A. C. Manning & Eugene Mohareb & Marco Raugei & Joris Baars & Mohammad Ali Rajaeifar, 2022. "LAYERS: A Decision-Support Tool to Illustrate and Assess the Supply and Value Chain for the Energy Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Jessica Dunn & Kabian Ritter & Jesús M. Velázquez & Alissa Kendall, 2023. "Should high‐cobalt EV batteries be repurposed? Using LCA to assess the impact of technological innovation on the waste hierarchy," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(5), pages 1277-1290, October.
    7. James T. Frith & Matthew J. Lacey & Ulderico Ulissi, 2023. "A non-academic perspective on the future of lithium-based batteries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Mauler, Lukas & Duffner, Fabian & Leker, Jens, 2021. "Economies of scale in battery cell manufacturing: The impact of material and process innovations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 286(C).
    9. Duffner, Fabian & Mauler, Lukas & Wentker, Marc & Leker, Jens & Winter, Martin, 2021. "Large-scale automotive battery cell manufacturing: Analyzing strategic and operational effects on manufacturing costs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Gustafsson, Robert & Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Are energy metals hedges or safe havens for clean energy stock returns?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    11. Bruno Jetin, 2020. "Who will control the electric vehicle market?," International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 20(2), pages 156-177.
    12. Artur Kozłowski & Łukasz Bołoz, 2021. "Design and Research on Power Systems and Algorithms for Controlling Electric Underground Mining Machines Powered by Batteries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, July.
    13. Sebastian Wolff & Moritz Seidenfus & Karim Gordon & Sergio Álvarez & Svenja Kalt & Markus Lienkamp, 2020. "Scalable Life-Cycle Inventory for Heavy-Duty Vehicle Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-22, July.
    14. Natalie D. Popovich & Deepak Rajagopal & Elif Tasar & Amol Phadke, 2021. "Economic, environmental and grid-resilience benefits of converting diesel trains to battery-electric," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1017-1025, November.
    15. Yang, Chen, 2022. "Running battery electric vehicles with extended range: Coupling cost and energy analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PB).
    16. Wesselkämper, Jannis & Dahrendorf, Laureen & Mauler, Lukas & Lux, Simon & von Delft, Stephan, 2024. "Towards circular battery supply chains: Strategies to reduce material demand and the impact on mining and recycling," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Gutsch, Moritz & Leker, Jens, 2024. "Costs, carbon footprint, and environmental impacts of lithium-ion batteries – From cathode active material synthesis to cell manufacturing and recycling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    18. Kanchiralla, Fayas Malik & Brynolf, Selma & Olsson, Tobias & Ellis, Joanne & Hansson, Julia & Grahn, Maria, 2023. "How do variations in ship operation impact the techno-economic feasibility and environmental performance of fossil-free fuels? A life cycle study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    19. Anthony L. Cheng & Erica R. H. Fuchs & Valerie J. Karplus & Jeremy J. Michalek, 2024. "Electric vehicle battery chemistry affects supply chain disruption vulnerabilities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Francesca Lionetto & Sonia Bagheri & Claudio Mele, 2021. "Sustainable Materials from Fish Industry Waste for Electrochemical Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-19, November.

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