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Cost Projection of State of the Art Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles Up to 2030

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  • Gert Berckmans

    (MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Maarten Messagie

    (MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Jelle Smekens

    (MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Noshin Omar

    (MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Lieselot Vanhaverbeke

    (MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Joeri Van Mierlo

    (MOBI Research Group, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract

The negative impact of the automotive industry on climate change can be tackled by changing from fossil driven vehicles towards battery electric vehicles with no tailpipe emissions. However their adoption mainly depends on the willingness to pay for the extra cost of the traction battery. The goal of this paper is to predict the cost of a battery pack in 2030 when considering two aspects: firstly a decade of research will ensure an improvement in material sciences altering a battery’s chemical composition. Secondly by considering the price erosion due to the production cost optimization, by maturing of the market and by evolving towards to a mass-manufacturing situation. The cost of a lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) battery (Cathode: NMC 6:2:2 ; Anode: graphite) as well as silicon based lithium-ion battery (Cathode: NMC 6:2:2 ; Anode: silicon alloy), expected to be on the market in 10 years, will be predicted to tackle the first aspect. The second aspect will be considered by combining process-based cost calculations with learning curves, which takes the increasing battery market into account. The 100 dollar/kWh sales barrier will be reached respectively between 2020-2025 for silicon based lithium-ion batteries and 2025–2030 for NMC batteries, which will give a boost to global electric vehicle adoption.

Suggested Citation

  • Gert Berckmans & Maarten Messagie & Jelle Smekens & Noshin Omar & Lieselot Vanhaverbeke & Joeri Van Mierlo, 2017. "Cost Projection of State of the Art Lithium-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-20, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:9:p:1314-:d:110631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Van Noorden, 2014. "The rechargeable revolution: A better battery," Nature, Nature, vol. 507(7490), pages 26-28, March.
    2. Nils Hooftman & Luis Oliveira & Maarten Messagie & Thierry Coosemans & Joeri Van Mierlo, 2016. "Environmental Analysis of Petrol, Diesel and Electric Passenger Cars in a Belgian Urban Setting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, January.
    3. Jelle Smekens & Rahul Gopalakrishnan & Nils Van den Steen & Noshin Omar & Omar Hegazy & Annick Hubin & Joeri Van Mierlo, 2016. "Influence of Electrode Density on the Performance of Li-Ion Batteries: Experimental and Simulation Results," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-12, February.
    4. Franke, Thomas & Krems, Josef F., 2013. "What drives range preferences in electric vehicle users?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 56-62.
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