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Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydropower Potential in Data-Scarce Regions Subjected to Multi-Decadal Variability

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Arriagada

    (Environmental Engineering Department, Universidad de Concepción, Concepcion 4070386, Chile)

  • Bastien Dieppois

    (Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience (CAWR), Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK
    Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
    School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2SA, UK)

  • Moussa Sidibe

    (Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience (CAWR), Coventry University, Coventry CV1 5FB, UK)

  • Oscar Link

    (Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad de Concepción, Concepcion 4070386, Chile)

Abstract

To achieve sustainable development of hydroelectric resources, it is necessary to understand their availability, variability, and the expected impacts of climate change. Current research has mainly focused on estimating hydropower potential or determining the optimal locations for hydropower projects without considering the variability and historical trends of the resources. Herein, the hydropower potential variability from reconstructed streamflow series estimated with a non-parametric gap-filling method and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques are analyzed. The relationships between hydropower and large-scale climate variability, expressed by sea surface temperature, are explored. Finally, we project hydropower potential through 2050 using 15 global circulation models with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. We used four watersheds in central Chile as a case study. The results show significant interannual and inter-basin hydropower potential variability, with decreasing trends over time modulated by alternating positive and negative decadal trends; these modulations exhibit greater intensities than the general trends and are attributable to climatic oscillations such as El Niño. Future scenarios indicate high hydropower availability and a possible over-investment in hydroelectric plants in two of the four studied watersheds. Results show the need to improve the current policies that promote hydropower development including hydropower resource variability in order to achieve optimal, sustainable hydropower development worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Arriagada & Bastien Dieppois & Moussa Sidibe & Oscar Link, 2019. "Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydropower Potential in Data-Scarce Regions Subjected to Multi-Decadal Variability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2747-:d:249399
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    3. Jaewon Jung & Heechan Han & Kyunghun Kim & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-10, June.
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    5. Sungeun Jung & Younghye Bae & Jongsung Kim & Hongjun Joo & Hung Soo Kim & Jaewon Jung, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (1) Estimation of the Potential in Ungaged Basins," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, May.
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    7. Esteban Gil & Yerel Morales & Tomás Ochoa, 2021. "Addressing the Effects of Climate Change on Modeling Future Hydroelectric Energy Production in Chile," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, January.

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