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Revue de littérature sur le changement climatique au Maroc : observations, projections et impacts

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  • Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ

Abstract

L’empreinte du changement climatique global est déjà clairement visible au Maroc : la température moyenne du pays a augmenté de +0,42 °C/décennie depuis 1990 et la diminution des précipitations est estimée à plus de 20% entre 1961 et 2005. La moyenne des projections des différents modèles climatiques indique que cette tendance à l’aridification va se poursuivre, avec à horizon 2050 une augmentation supplémentaire de la température de +1,5 °C (+2 °C) pour le scénario RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) et une diminution des précipitations de -15 % environ. Certains modèles projettent un déclin des précipitations bien supérieur, de l’ordre de -40 %. À horizon 2050 les projections de l’évolution des pluies extrêmes ne sont pas toujours statistiquement significatives. En revanche, la fréquence des vagues de chaleur et des sécheresses devrait fortement augmenter. Les rendements de l’agriculture non-irriguée seront affectés négativement, avec un déclin qui pourrait dépasser 40 % dans certains régions pour le blé et l’orge. Globalement, les besoins en eau des plantes risquent de fortement augmenter, nécessitant un recourt accru à l’irrigation, tandis que dans le même temps le débit des rivières pourrait diminuer de plus de 30 %. L’adéquation entre les ressources en eau disponible et les besoins du secteur agricole semble donc relativement incertaine. Par ailleurs, le secteur de l’énergie pourrait être affecté par une diminution de la capacité de production des centrales thermiques et hydrauliques. Enfin, 1,82 millions de Marocains habitent actuellement dans des zones qui seraient submergées de façon permanente en cas de montée du niveau marin de plus de 40 cm, une valeur très probable pour la fin du siècle et qui n’est pas à exclure dès le milieu du siècle si le Groenland et l’Antarctique fondaient plus rapidement que prévu.

Suggested Citation

  • Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ, 2019. "Revue de littérature sur le changement climatique au Maroc : observations, projections et impacts," Working Paper 7ae2aa2d-befc-471b-94be-9, Agence française de développement.
    • Handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr9807
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    File URL: https://www.afd.fr/sites/afd/files/2019-07-12-06-43/Changement%20climatique%20au%20Maroc.pdf
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    Keywords

    Maroc;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics

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