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Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador

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Listed:
  • Pablo E. Carvajal

    (University College London)

  • Gabrial Anandarajah

    (University College London)

  • Yacob Mulugetta

    (University College London)

  • Olivier Dessens

    (University College London)

Abstract

This study presents a method to assess the sensitivity of hydropower generation to uncertain water resource availability driven by future climate change. A hydrology-electricity modelling framework was developed and applied to six rivers where 10 hydropower stations operate, which together represent over 85% of Ecuador’s installed hydropower capacity. The modelling framework was then forced with bias-corrected output from 40 individual global circulation model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. Impacts of changing climate on hydropower resource were quantified for 2071–2100 relative to a baseline period 1971–2000. Results show a wide annual average inflow range from + 277% to − 85% when individual climate experiments are assessed. The analysis also show that hydropower generation in Ecuador is highly uncertain and sensitive to climate change since variations in inflow to hydropower stations would directly result in changes in the expected hydropower potential. Annual hydroelectric power production in Ecuador is found to vary between − 55 and + 39% of the mean historical output when considering future inflow patterns to hydroelectric reservoirs covering one standard deviation of the CMIP5 RCP4.5 climate ensemble.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo E. Carvajal & Gabrial Anandarajah & Yacob Mulugetta & Olivier Dessens, 2017. "Assessing uncertainty of climate change impacts on long-term hydropower generation using the CMIP5 ensemble—the case of Ecuador," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 611-624, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:144:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2055-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2055-4
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    1. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    2. Sebastian Naranjo-Silva & Diego Punina-Guerrero & Luis Rivera-Gonzalez & Kenny Escobar-Segovia & Jose David Barros-Enriquez & Jorge Armando Almeida-Dominguez & Javier Alvarez del Castillo, 2023. "Hydropower Scenarios in the Face of Climate Change in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-15, June.
    3. Pengcheng Qin & Hongmei Xu & Min Liu & Lüliu Liu & Chan Xiao & Iman Mallakpour & Matin Rahnamay Naeini & Kuolin Hsu & Soroosh Sorooshian, 2022. "Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.
    4. Pedro Arriagada & Bastien Dieppois & Moussa Sidibe & Oscar Link, 2019. "Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydropower Potential in Data-Scarce Regions Subjected to Multi-Decadal Variability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Priyanka Majumder & Mrinmoy Majumder & Apu Kumar Saha & Soumitra Nath, 2020. "Selection of features for analysis of reliability of performance in hydropower plants: a multi-criteria decision making approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3239-3265, April.
    6. Jaewon Jung & Heechan Han & Kyunghun Kim & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-10, June.
    7. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    8. Sungeun Jung & Younghye Bae & Jongsung Kim & Hongjun Joo & Hung Soo Kim & Jaewon Jung, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (1) Estimation of the Potential in Ungaged Basins," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, May.
    9. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Jennifer Cronin & Gabrial Anandarajah & Olivier Dessens, 2018. "Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 79-93, November.
    11. Lucena, André F.P. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline & Turner, Sean & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Kober, Tom & Cai, Yongxia & Beach, Robert H. & Gernaat,, 2018. "Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1161-1177.
    12. Qi Cui & Tariq Ali & Wei Xie & Jikun Huang & Jinxia Wang, 2022. "The uncertainty of climate change impacts on China’s agricultural economy based on an integrated assessment approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Danyang Gao & Albert S. Chen & Fayyaz Ali Memon, 2024. "A Systematic Review of Methods for Investigating Climate Change Impacts on Water-Energy-Food Nexus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-43, January.
    14. J. Restrepo-Trujillo & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Francy Nelly Jim nez-Garc a, 2020. "Strategies of Expansion for Electric Power Systems Based on Hydroelectric Plants in the Context of Climate Change: Case of Analysis of Colombia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 66-74.

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