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Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

Author

Listed:
  • Byman H. Hamududu

    (Hydrology Department, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), N-0301 Oslo, Norway
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Ånund Killingtveit

    (Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), S.P. Andersens Vei 5, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

Suggested Citation

  • Byman H. Hamududu & Ånund Killingtveit, 2016. "Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:7:p:502-:d:73067
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Byman Hamududu & Aanund Killingtveit, 2012. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
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    2. Zhong, Ruida & Zhao, Tongtiegang & He, Yanhu & Chen, Xiaohong, 2019. "Hydropower change of the water tower of Asia in 21st century: A case of the Lancang River hydropower base, upper Mekong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 685-696.
    3. Pedro Arriagada & Bastien Dieppois & Moussa Sidibe & Oscar Link, 2019. "Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydropower Potential in Data-Scarce Regions Subjected to Multi-Decadal Variability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-20, July.
    4. Jaewon Jung & Heechan Han & Kyunghun Kim & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-10, June.
    5. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    6. Sungeun Jung & Younghye Bae & Jongsung Kim & Hongjun Joo & Hung Soo Kim & Jaewon Jung, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (1) Estimation of the Potential in Ungaged Basins," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-20, May.
    7. Byman H. Hamududu & Hambulo Ngoma, 2020. "Impacts of climate change on water resources availability in Zambia: implications for irrigation development," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 2817-2838, April.
    8. Maxime Binama & Kan Kan & Hui-Xiang Chen & Yuan Zheng & Da-Qing Zhou & Wen-Tao Su & Xin-Feng Ge & Janvier Ndayizigiye, 2021. "A Numerical Investigation into the PAT Hydrodynamic Response to Impeller Rotational Speed Variation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-22, July.
    9. Paweł Tomczyk & Mirosław Wiatkowski, 2021. "The Effects of Hydropower Plants on the Physicochemical Parameters of the Bystrzyca River in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-29, April.
    10. Dulias Renata, 2022. "Anthropogenic and natural factors influencing African World Heritage sites," Environmental & Socio-economic Studies, Sciendo, vol. 10(3), pages 67-84, September.
    11. Katarzyna Kubiak-Wójcicka & Leszek Szczęch, 2021. "Dynamics of Electricity Production against the Backdrop of Climate Change: A Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-24, June.

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