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Climate change impact assessment on hydropower generation using multi-model climate ensemble

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  • Chilkoti, Vinod
  • Bolisetti, Tirupati
  • Balachandar, Ram

Abstract

Hydropower is the primary renewable source of energy that harnesses the power of the naturally flowing water streams and its potential is strongly impacted by the hydrological regime. The objective of the present research is to carry out a hydrological model based study to assess the impacts of climate change on hydropower generation by using the regional climate model (RCM) data available through coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CORDEX), and subsequently to analyse the effect of using model ensemble in projecting the future hydrology and energy generation scenario. C.H.Corn hydroelectric project located on River Ochlockonee near Tallahassee in Florida, USA, has been considered as a case study. A hydrologic model of the basin, draining into the dam, is developed using a conceptual model HYMOD with the historical climate and flow data extracted from the model parameter estimation experiment (MOPEX) dataset. The future projected climate scenario (2091–2100) is generated following the Representative Concentrated Pathways (RCP) 4.5 with the ensembles of six climate models. The impact of the future climate on water availability indicates a significant seasonal variability among the model ensemble results with an overall annual increase of statistics for the climate variables, corresponding inflows and a marginal increase in the energy generation.

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  • Chilkoti, Vinod & Bolisetti, Tirupati & Balachandar, Ram, 2017. "Climate change impact assessment on hydropower generation using multi-model climate ensemble," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 510-517.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:109:y:2017:i:c:p:510-517
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2017.02.041
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    7. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    8. Liu, Dunnan & Zhao, Weidong & Li, Zhihao & Xu, Xiaofeng & Xiao, Bowen & Niu, Dongxiao, 2018. "Can hydropower develop as expected in China? A scenario analysis based on system dynamics model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 118-129.
    9. de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo & Faria, Victor A.D. & Lima, Luana M.M. & Lima, José W.M., 2019. "Hydropower revenues under the threat of climate change in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 873-882.
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    12. Pedro Arriagada & Bastien Dieppois & Moussa Sidibe & Oscar Link, 2019. "Impacts of Climate Change and Climate Variability on Hydropower Potential in Data-Scarce Regions Subjected to Multi-Decadal Variability," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-20, July.
    13. Mohammad K. Najjar & Vivian W. Y. Tam & Leandro Torres Di Gregorio & Ana Catarina Jorge Evangelista & Ahmed W. A. Hammad & Assed Haddad, 2019. "Integrating Parametric Analysis with Building Information Modeling to Improve Energy Performance of Construction Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    14. J. Restrepo-Trujillo & Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen & Francy Nelly Jim nez-Garc a, 2020. "Strategies of Expansion for Electric Power Systems Based on Hydroelectric Plants in the Context of Climate Change: Case of Analysis of Colombia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 66-74.
    15. Suomalainen, Kiti & Wen, Le & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Climate change impact on the cost of decarbonisation in a hydro-based power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    16. Jaewon Jung & Heechan Han & Kyunghun Kim & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Machine Learning-Based Small Hydropower Potential Prediction under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-10, June.
    17. Jung-Chuan Chou & Cheng-Chu Ko & Jun-Xiang Chang & Chih-Hsien Lai & Yu-Hsun Nien & Po-Yu Kuo & Huang-Hua Chen & Hui-Hsuan Hsu & Geng-Ming Hu, 2019. "Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Using Aluminum-Doped Zinc Oxide/Titanium Dioxide Photoanodes in Parallel," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-13, September.
    18. Chang, Jianxia & Wang, Xiaoyu & Li, Yunyun & Wang, Yimin & Zhang, Hongxue, 2018. "Hydropower plant operation rules optimization response to climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 886-897.
    19. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
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    21. Zhang, Yi & Cheng, Chuntian & Yang, Tiantian & Jin, Xiaoyu & Jia, Zebin & Shen, Jianjian & Wu, Xinyu, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the hydro-wind-solar energy supply system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

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