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Predicting on-time performance in scheduled railroad operations: methodology and application to train scheduling

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  • Hallowell, Susan F.
  • Harker, Patrick T.

Abstract

In previous work, the authors developed an analytical line delay model for analyzing rail line-haul operations, and validated the model as a predictive tool. This paper examines the application of the model as a prescriptive tool for the generation of train schedules. A unique feature of the model is that it incorporates dynamic meet/pass priorities in order to approximate an optimal meet/pass planning process. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine the application of the model for adjusting real-world schedules to improve on-time performance and reduce delay. This empirical work represents the first attempt to investigate the impacts of the scheduling methodology on on-time line-haul performance. The problems are based on historical data from a major North American railroad.

Suggested Citation

  • Hallowell, Susan F. & Harker, Patrick T., 1998. "Predicting on-time performance in scheduled railroad operations: methodology and application to train scheduling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 279-295, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:32:y:1998:i:4:p:279-295
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    2. Rietveld, P. & Bruinsma, F.R. & Vuuren, D.J. van, 1999. "Coping with unreliability in public transport chains," Serie Research Memoranda 0031, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Kroon, L.G. & Dekker, R. & Vromans, M.J.C.M., 2005. "Cyclic Railway Timetabling: a Stochastic Optimization Approach," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-051-LIS, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    4. Leachman, Robert C. & Jula, Payman, 2012. "Estimating flow times for containerized imports from Asia to the United States through the Western rail network," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 296-309.
    5. Chow, Andy H.F. & Pavlides, Aris, 2018. "Cost functions and multi-objective timetabling of mixed train services," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 335-356.
    6. Kroon, Leo & Maróti, Gábor & Helmrich, Mathijn Retel & Vromans, Michiel & Dekker, Rommert, 2008. "Stochastic improvement of cyclic railway timetables," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 553-570, July.
    7. Carey, Malachy, 1999. "Ex ante heuristic measures of schedule reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 473-494, September.
    8. Törnquist, Johanna, 2007. "Railway traffic disturbance management--An experimental analysis of disturbance complexity, management objectives and limitations in planning horizon," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 249-266, March.

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