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Two Moments Estimation of the Delay on Single-Track Rail Lines with Scheduled Traffic

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  • Bintong Chen

    (University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-6366)

  • Patrick T. Harker

    (University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-6366)

Abstract

A substantial literature exists on the estimation of the delay function for a single-track railroad with the assumption that the trains are uniformly distributed over time. In order to make the estimation more accurate and realistic, this paper provides the definition of delay functions for a scheduled railroad in which each train has a scheduled departure and arrival time. The key feature of this paper is that the uncertainty in the actual train departure time is explicitly taken into consideration. Since the variance of delay is important in the measurement of the reliability of a given set of schedules, both the mean and the variance of delay are estimated by solving a system of nonlinear equations.

Suggested Citation

  • Bintong Chen & Patrick T. Harker, 1990. "Two Moments Estimation of the Delay on Single-Track Rail Lines with Scheduled Traffic," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(4), pages 261-275, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ortrsc:v:24:y:1990:i:4:p:261-275
    DOI: 10.1287/trsc.24.4.261
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    Cited by:

    1. Carey, Malachy & Kwiecinski, Andrzej, 1995. "Properties of expected costs and performance measures in stochastic models of scheduled transport," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 182-199, May.
    2. Enrique Castillo & Inmaculada Gallego & José Ureña & José Coronado, 2009. "Timetabling optimization of a single railway track line with sensitivity analysis," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 17(2), pages 256-287, December.
    3. Ortega Riejos, Francisco A. & Barrena, Eva & Canca Ortiz, J. David & Laporte, Gilbert, 2016. "Analyzing the theoretical capacity of railway networks with a radial-backbone topology," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 83-92.
    4. Jean-François Cordeau & Paolo Toth & Daniele Vigo, 1998. "A Survey of Optimization Models for Train Routing and Scheduling," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 380-404, November.
    5. Fransoo, Jan C. & Bertrand, J. Will M., 2000. "An aggregate capacity estimation model for the evaluation of railroad passing constructions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 35-49, January.
    6. Mussone, Lorenzo & Wolfler Calvo, Roberto, 2013. "An analytical approach to calculate the capacity of a railway system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 228(1), pages 11-23.
    7. Zhou, Xuesong & Zhong, Ming, 2007. "Single-track train timetabling with guaranteed optimality: Branch-and-bound algorithms with enhanced lower bounds," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 320-341, March.
    8. Mu, Shi & Dessouky, Maged, 2013. "Efficient dispatching rules on double tracks with heterogeneous train traffic," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 45-64.
    9. Kraay, David R. & Harker, Patrick T., 1995. "Real-time scheduling of freight railroads," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 213-229, June.
    10. Higgins, Andrew & Antony, George & Sandell, Gary & Davies, Ian & Prestwidge, Di & Andrew, Bill, 2004. "A framework for integrating a complex harvesting and transport system for sugar production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 99-115, November.
    11. Talebian, Ahmadreza & Zou, Bo, 2015. "Integrated modeling of high performance passenger and freight train planning on shared-use corridors in the US," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 114-140.
    12. Crainic, Teodor Gabriel & Laporte, Gilbert, 1997. "Planning models for freight transportation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 409-438, March.
    13. Ferreira, L., 1997. "Planning Australian freight rail operations: An overview," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 335-348, July.
    14. Meng, Lingyun & Zhou, Xuesong, 2011. "Robust single-track train dispatching model under a dynamic and stochastic environment: A scenario-based rolling horizon solution approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1080-1102, August.
    15. Hallowell, Susan F. & Harker, Patrick T., 1998. "Predicting on-time performance in scheduled railroad operations: methodology and application to train scheduling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 279-295, May.
    16. Krüger, Niclas A. & Vierth , Inge & Fakhraei Roudsari, Farzad, 2013. "Spatial, temporal and size distribution of freight train delays: evidence from Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:8, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    17. Carey, Malachy, 1999. "Ex ante heuristic measures of schedule reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 473-494, September.

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