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Anticipating technological convergence: Link prediction using Wikipedia hyperlinks

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  • Kim, Juram
  • Kim, Seungho
  • Lee, Changyong

Abstract

Technological convergence has been the subject of many previous studies, but most have focused on ex post evaluation using patent information. The value of predictive analysis and new data sources has thus seldom been addressed. This study proposes a systematic approach to anticipating technological convergence that can be used to guide organisations towards reacting in a timely manner to challenges posed by increasingly permeable technology boundaries. For this, a technological ecology network is constructed using direct and indirect hyperlinks extracted from the Wikipedia database, and link prediction methods are employed to develop three predictive indicators of technological convergence. A case of 3D printing technology confirms, with statistically significant outcomes, that the proposed approach enables a wide-ranging search for future converging technologies. The systematic process and quantitative outcomes of the proposed approach are expected to be valuable as a complementary tool for strategic decision making regarding emerging technologies in the era of open innovation.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Juram & Kim, Seungho & Lee, Changyong, 2019. "Anticipating technological convergence: Link prediction using Wikipedia hyperlinks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 25-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:techno:v:79:y:2019:i:c:p:25-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.technovation.2018.06.008
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hong, Suckwon & Kim, Juram & Woo, Han-Gyun & Kim, Young-Choon & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "Screening ideas in the early stages of technology development: A word2vec and convolutional neural network approach," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Jungpyo Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Recommendation system for technology convergence opportunities based on self-supervised representation learning," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Liu, Zhenfeng & Feng, Jian & Uden, Lorna, 2023. "Technology opportunity analysis using hierarchical semantic networks and dual link prediction," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Sasaki, Hajime & Sakata, Ichiro, 2021. "Identifying potential technological spin-offs using hierarchical information in international patent classification," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Changyong Lee & Suckwon Hong & Juram Kim, 2021. "Anticipating multi-technology convergence: a machine learning approach using patent information," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 1867-1896, March.
    7. ZHU Chen & MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki, 2022. "Government R&D spending as a driving force of technology convergence," Discussion papers 22030, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Lee, Changyong, 2021. "A review of data analytics in technological forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Wang, Jinfeng & Zhang, Zhixin & Feng, Lijie & Lin, Kuo-Yi & Liu, Peng, 2023. "Development of technology opportunity analysis based on technology landscape by extending technology elements with BERT and TRIZ," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    10. Lee, Changyong & Jeon, Daeseong & Ahn, Joon Mo & Kwon, Ohjin, 2020. "Navigating a product landscape for technology opportunity analysis: A word2vec approach using an integrated patent-product database," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 96.
    11. Sick, Nathalie & Bröring, Stefanie, 2022. "Exploring the research landscape of convergence from a TIM perspective: A review and research agenda," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    12. Marić, Josip & Opazo-Basáez, Marco & Vlačić, Božidar & Dabić, Marina, 2023. "Innovation management of three-dimensional printing (3DP) technology: Disclosing insights from existing literature and determining future research streams," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
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    14. Zhu, Chen & Motohashi, Kazuyuki, 2022. "Identifying the technology convergence using patent text information: A graph convolutional networks (GCN)-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    15. Seo, Wonchul & Afifuddin, Mokh, 2024. "Developing a supervised learning model for anticipating potential technology convergence between technology topics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    16. Jee, Su Jung & Kwon, Minji & Ha, Jung Moon & Sohn, So Young, 2019. "Exploring the forward citation patterns of patents based on the evolution of technology fields," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4).
    17. Ying Tang & Xuming Lou & Zifeng Chen & Chengjin Zhang, 2020. "A Study on Dynamic Patterns of Technology Convergence with IPC Co-Occurrence-Based Analysis: The Case of 3D Printing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, March.
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    20. Chen Zhu & Kazuyuki Motohashi, 2023. "Government R&D spending as a driving force of technology convergence: a case study of the Advanced Sequencing Technology Program," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(5), pages 3035-3065, May.

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