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An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans

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  • Lee, Changyong
  • Song, Bomi
  • Park, Yongtae

Abstract

Scenario-based technology roadmapping offers a strong capability for strategic planning to respond to increasingly volatile environments. However, previous studies cannot guide organisations towards making robust decisions against complex future conditions since they remain conceptual and rely solely on graphical mapping tools. To counter this, we propose a systematic approach to making scenario-based technology roadmapping more robust by adding the ability to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans. At the heart of the suggested approach is a Bayesian network that can examine uncertainty inherent in future changes and ripple impacts resulting from interdependence among activities. The proposed approach is designed to be executed in three discrete steps: defining a roadmap topology and causal relationships via qualitative and quantitative modelling; assessing the impacts of future changes on organisational plans via current state analysis and sensitivity analysis; and finally managing plans and activities via development of plan assessment map and activity assessment map. A case study of photovoltaic cell technology is presented to show the feasibility of our method. We believe the systematic process and quantitative outcomes the suggested approach offers can facilitate responsive technology planning in the face of future uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Changyong & Song, Bomi & Park, Yongtae, 2015. "An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 285-301.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:90:y:2015:i:pa:p:285-301
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Yujin Jeong & Hyejin Jang & Byungun Yoon, 2021. "Developing a risk-adaptive technology roadmap using a Bayesian network and topic modeling under deep uncertainty," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 3697-3722, May.
    2. Cheng, M.N. & Wong, Jane W.K. & Cheung, C.F. & Leung, K.H., 2016. "A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 44-62.
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    6. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2016. "Emerging economies, emerging challenges: Mobilising and capturing value from big data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 167-174.
    7. Lee, Changyong & Kim, Juram & Lee, Sungjoo, 2016. "Towards robust technology roadmapping: How to diagnose the vulnerability of organisational plans," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 164-175.
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    10. Lee, Keeeun & Kim, Sunhye & Yoon, Byungun, 2022. "A systematic idea generation approach for developing a new technology: Application of a socio-technical transition system," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    11. Saba Sareminia & Alireza Hasanzadeh & Shaaban Elahi & Gholamali Montazer, 2019. "Developing Technology Roadmapping Combinational Framework by Meta Synthesis Technique," International Journal of Innovation and Technology Management (IJITM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 1-36, April.
    12. Cheng, Yu & Huang, Lucheng & Ramlogan, Ronnie & Li, Xin, 2017. "Forecasting of potential impacts of disruptive technology in promising technological areas: Elaborating the SIRS epidemic model in RFID technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 170-183.
    13. de Alcantara, Douglas Pedro & Martens, Mauro Luiz, 2019. "Technology Roadmapping (TRM): a systematic review of the literature focusing on models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 127-138.
    14. Park, Hyunkyu & Phaal, Rob & Ho, Jae-Yun & O'Sullivan, Eoin, 2020. "Twenty years of technology and strategic roadmapping research: A school of thought perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Yuya Mitake & Kenshiro Hiramitsu & Yusuke Tsutsui & Mar’atus Sholihah & Yoshiki Shimomura, 2020. "A Strategic Planning Method to Guide Product—Service System Development and Implementation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-23, September.
    16. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2016. "Emerging economies, emerging challenges: Mobilising and capturing value from big data," MPRA Paper 85625, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    18. Zhang, Mingming & Zhou, Simei & Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Liyun & Zhou, Dequn, 2023. "Will the carbon neutrality target impact China's energy security? A dynamic Bayesian network model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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