IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v247y2019icp745-754.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability

Author

Listed:
  • O'Connell,
  • Voisin, Nathalie
  • Macknick,
  • Fu,

Abstract

The energy sector is heavily dependent on surface water availability for reliable electricity generation. Power system operations are usually evaluated through system reliability and economic perspectives, with assumptions based on market prices and normal water availability. As natural gas technologies continue to dominate new thermal capacity, replacing retiring coal and nuclear generators, natural gas price stability becomes increasingly important and the impact of price volatility on grid operations must be understood. Here, we explore the range of Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) regional power operations, which represents the electric interconnection over the western half of the continental United States, using a production cost model driven by different fuel prices and an integrated hydrology model to simulate historical water availability. Our results show system-wide operation costs increasing in drought years or when gas prices increase, as expected. In addition, we found those system-wide increases can be of the same magnitude. Regional analysis of the responses to compounded droughts and price volatility highlight differences in magnitude and direction depending on regional generation technology portfolios. The Pacific Northwest is most sensitive to drought conditions, Southern California is most sensitive to gas prices, and the Desert Southwest is sensitive to both with the same magnitude. This analysis motivates further research in combined hydrology and power system modeling to characterize regional dynamics and associated uncertainties across scales, which is an important underpinning for the development of more resilient energy and water systems.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Connell, & Voisin, Nathalie & Macknick, & Fu,, 2019. "Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 745-754.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:247:y:2019:i:c:p:745-754
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919301254
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.156?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Silvio Pereira-Cardenal & Henrik Madsen & Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen & Niels Riegels & Roar Jensen & Birger Mo & Ivar Wangensteen & Peter Bauer-Gottwein, 2014. "Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 351-364, October.
    2. Peer, Rebecca A.M. & Sanders, Kelly T., 2018. "The water consequences of a transitioning US power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 613-622.
    3. Alizadeh, M.I. & Parsa Moghaddam, M. & Amjady, N. & Siano, P. & Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., 2016. "Flexibility in future power systems with high renewable penetration: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1186-1193.
    4. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & David Wiberg & Sylvain Leduc & Keywan Riahi, 2016. "Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 375-380, April.
    5. Voisin, N. & Kintner-Meyer, M. & Skaggs, R. & Nguyen, T. & Wu, D. & Dirks, J. & Xie, Y. & Hejazi, M., 2016. "Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1-12.
    6. Michelle T. H. van Vliet & John R. Yearsley & Fulco Ludwig & Stefan Vögele & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Pavel Kabat, 2012. "Vulnerability of US and European electricity supply to climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 676-681, September.
    7. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan & Golove, William, 2006. "Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable to gas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 706-720, April.
    8. S. W. D. Turner & N. Voisin & J. Fazio & D. Hua & M. Jourabchi, 2019. "Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    9. Matthew D. Bartos & Mikhail V. Chester, 2015. "Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 748-752, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Turner, Sean W.D. & Nelson, Kristian & Voisin, Nathalie & Tidwell, Vincent & Miara, Ariel & Dyreson, Ana & Cohen, Stuart & Mantena, Dan & Jin, Julie & Warnken, Pete & Kao, Shih-Chieh, 2021. "A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    4. Ploussard, Quentin & Veselka, Thomas D. & Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Hydro-economics tradeoff surfaces to guide unit commitment in production cost models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    5. Shuai, Hang & Li, Fangxing & Zhu, Jinxiang & Tingen II, William Jerome & Mukherjee, Srijib, 2024. "Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    6. Sergei Schaub & Nadja El Benni, 2024. "How do price (risk) changes influence farmers’ preferences to reduce fertilizer application?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 365-383, March.
    7. Zhai, Haibo & Rubin, Edward S. & Grol, Eric J. & O'Connell, Andrew C. & Wu, Zitao & Lewis, Eric G., 2022. "Dry cooling retrofits at existing fossil fuel-fired power plants in a water-stressed region: Tradeoffs in water savings, cost, and capacity shortfalls," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cohen, Stuart M. & Dyreson, Ana & Turner, Sean & Tidwell, Vince & Voisin, Nathalie & Miara, Ariel, 2022. "A multi-model framework for assessing long- and short-term climate influences on the electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    2. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Oikonomou, Konstantinos & Tarroja, Brian & Kern, Jordan & Voisin, Nathalie, 2022. "Core process representation in power system operational models: Gaps, challenges, and opportunities for multisector dynamics research," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    4. Turner, Sean W.D. & Nelson, Kristian & Voisin, Nathalie & Tidwell, Vincent & Miara, Ariel & Dyreson, Ana & Cohen, Stuart & Mantena, Dan & Jin, Julie & Warnken, Pete & Kao, Shih-Chieh, 2021. "A multi-reservoir model for projecting drought impacts on thermoelectric disruption risk across the Texas power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Pengcheng Qin & Hongmei Xu & Min Liu & Lüliu Liu & Chan Xiao & Iman Mallakpour & Matin Rahnamay Naeini & Kuolin Hsu & Soroosh Sorooshian, 2022. "Projected impacts of climate change on major dams in the Upper Yangtze River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Jonas Savelsberg & Moritz Schillinger & Ingmar Schlecht & Hannes Weigt, 2018. "The Impact of Climate Change on Swiss Hydropower," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-23, July.
    7. Qian Zhou & Naota Hanasaki & Shinichiro Fujimori, 2018. "Economic Consequences of Cooling Water Insufficiency in the Thermal Power Sector under Climate Change Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-11, October.
    8. Gjorgiev, Blaže & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2018. "Electrical power generation under policy constrained water-energy nexus," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 568-579.
    9. Voisin, N. & Kintner-Meyer, M. & Skaggs, R. & Nguyen, T. & Wu, D. & Dirks, J. & Xie, Y. & Hejazi, M., 2016. "Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 1-12.
    10. Pengbang Wei & Yufang Peng & Weidong Chen, 2022. "Climate change adaptation mechanisms and strategies of coal-fired power plants," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    12. Jin, Yi & Scherer, Laura & Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. & Tukker, Arnold & Behrens, Paul, 2022. "Climate change and CCS increase the water vulnerability of China's thermoelectric power fleet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    13. Zhao, Xiaohu & Huang, Guohe & Li, Yongping & Lu, Chen, 2023. "Responses of hydroelectricity generation to streamflow drought under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. Craig, Christopher A. & Feng, Song, 2016. "An examination of electricity generation by utility organizations in the Southeast United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 601-608.
    15. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    16. Shuai, Hang & Li, Fangxing & Zhu, Jinxiang & Tingen II, William Jerome & Mukherjee, Srijib, 2024. "Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    17. Payet-Burin, Raphael & Bertoni, Federica & Davidsen, Claus & Bauer-Gottwein, Peter, 2018. "Optimization of regional water - power systems under cooling constraints and climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 484-494.
    18. Ayoub, Ali & Gjorgiev, Blaže & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2018. "Cooling towers performance in a changing climate: Techno-economic modeling and design optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1133-1143.
    19. Zhou, Yuanchun & Ma, Mengdie & Gao, Peiqi & Xu, Qiming & Bi, Jun & Naren, Tuya, 2019. "Managing water resources from the energy - water nexus perspective under a changing climate: A case study of Jiangsu province, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 380-390.
    20. SarahM. Jordaan & Afreen Siddiqi & William Kakenmaster & AliceC. Hill, 2019. "The Climate Vulnerabilities of Global Nuclear Power," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 19(4), pages 3-13, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:247:y:2019:i:c:p:745-754. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.