IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v217y2021ics0360544220324282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Shuangyi
  • Li, Xichen

Abstract

Good knowledge of future wind energy resources is crucial for sitting and planning studies of wind farms. The simulation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and a proposed new downscaling method based on the bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU) are both used in this paper to study future offshore wind energy resources in China. The proposed new downscaling method is validated and compared to two traditional methods. It is found that the spatial patterns of downscaled wind speed are highly consistent with the reference data, and biases are significantly reduced by the new method, especially in coastal and shallow water areas. Using the new method, we downscale the CMIP6 future projected simulation results and generate a new dataset of offshore wind speeds in China for the period of 2021–2100 with a resolution of 0.25°. Multi-model ensemble (MME) results project small decreases in the offshore wind speed and wind power density over the East China Sea and increases in those parameters over the South China Sea, for the middle and end of the 21st Century (2041–2060 and 2081–2100) under two representative scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Shuangyi & Li, Xichen, 2021. "Future projections of offshore wind energy resources in China using CMIP6 simulations and a deep learning-based downscaling method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:217:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220324282
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.119321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220324282
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119321?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2020. "On the suitability of offshore wind energy resource in the United States of America for the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Santos, F. & Sousa, M.C. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2019. "Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 356-367.
    3. Barstad, Idar & Sorteberg, Asgeir & Mesquita, Michel dos-Santos, 2012. "Present and future offshore wind power potential in northern Europe based on downscaled global climate runs with adjusted SST and sea ice cover," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 398-405.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    5. Jie Chen & François Brissette & Robert Leconte, 2012. "Coupling statistical and dynamical methods for spatial downscaling of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 509-526, October.
    6. Koletsis, I. & Kotroni, V. & Lagouvardos, K. & Soukissian, T., 2016. "Assessment of offshore wind speed and power potential over the Mediterranean and the Black Seas under future climate changes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 234-245.
    7. Davy, Richard & Gnatiuk, Natalia & Pettersson, Lasse & Bobylev, Leonid, 2018. "Climate change impacts on wind energy potential in the European domain with a focus on the Black Sea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1652-1659.
    8. Markku Rummukainen, 2010. "State‐of‐the‐art with regional climate models," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 82-96, January.
    9. Ulazia, Alain & Sáenz, Jon & Ibarra-Berastegi, Gabriel & González-Rojí, Santos J. & Carreno-Madinabeitia, Sheila, 2019. "Global estimations of wind energy potential considering seasonal air density changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Zhao, Yang & Li, Jianping & Yu, Lean, 2017. "A deep learning ensemble approach for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 9-16.
    11. Ouammi, Ahmed & Ghigliotti, Valeria & Robba, Michela & Mimet, Abdelaziz & Sacile, Roberto, 2012. "A decision support system for the optimal exploitation of wind energy on regional scale," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 299-309.
    12. Olauson, Jon, 2018. "ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 322-331.
    13. Markus Reichstein & Gustau Camps-Valls & Bjorn Stevens & Martin Jung & Joachim Denzler & Nuno Carvalhais & Prabhat, 2019. "Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7743), pages 195-204, February.
    14. Wang, Huai-zhi & Li, Gang-qiang & Wang, Gui-bin & Peng, Jian-chun & Jiang, Hui & Liu, Yi-tao, 2017. "Deep learning based ensemble approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 56-70.
    15. Isabelle Tobin & Robert Vautard & Irena Balog & François-Marie Bréon & Sonia Jerez & Paolo Ruti & Françoise Thais & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou, 2015. "Assessing climate change impacts on European wind energy from ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 99-112, January.
    16. Tian, Qun & Huang, Gang & Hu, Kaiming & Niyogi, Dev, 2019. "Observed and global climate model based changes in wind power potential over the Northern Hemisphere during 1979–2016," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1224-1235.
    17. Soares, Pedro M.M. & Lima, Daniela C.A. & Cardoso, Rita M. & Nascimento, Manuel L. & Semedo, Alvaro, 2017. "Western Iberian offshore wind resources: More or less in a global warming climate?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 72-90.
    18. Fant, Charles & Adam Schlosser, C. & Strzepek, Kenneth, 2016. "The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 556-564.
    19. Carvalho, D. & Rocha, A. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Silva Santos, C., 2017. "Potential impacts of climate change on European wind energy resource under the CMIP5 future climate projections," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 29-40.
    20. deCastro, M. & Salvador, S. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Sanz-Larruga, F.J. & Gimeno, L., 2019. "Europe, China and the United States: Three different approaches to the development of offshore wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 55-70.
    21. Kong, Ziqian & Tang, Baoping & Deng, Lei & Liu, Wenyi & Han, Yan, 2020. "Condition monitoring of wind turbines based on spatio-temporal fusion of SCADA data by convolutional neural networks and gated recurrent units," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 760-768.
    22. Costoya, X. & Rocha, A. & Carvalho, D., 2020. "Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    23. Johnson, Dana L. & Erhardt, Robert J., 2016. "Projected impacts of climate change on wind energy density in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 66-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martinez, A. & Murphy, L. & Iglesias, G., 2023. "Evolution of offshore wind resources in Northern Europe under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    2. Liu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Lv, J. & Zhai, X.B. & Li, Y.F. & Zhou, B.Y., 2023. "Development of an integrated model on the basis of GCMs-RF-FA for predicting wind energy resources under climate change impact: A case study of Jing-Jin-Ji region in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P2).
    3. He, J.Y. & Li, Q.S. & Chan, P.W. & Zhao, X.D., 2023. "Assessment of future wind resources under climate change using a multi-model and multi-method ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    4. Jaime Meza-Carreto & Rosario Romero-Centeno & Bernardo Figueroa-Espinoza & Efraín Moreles & Carlos López-Villalobos, 2024. "Outlook for Offshore Wind Energy Development in Mexico from WRF Simulations and CMIP6 Projections," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-30, April.
    5. Vu Dinh, Quang & Doan, Quang-Van & Ngo-Duc, Thanh & Nguyen Dinh, Van & Dinh Duc, Nguyen, 2022. "Offshore wind resource in the context of global climate change over a tropical area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    6. Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2024. "Global wind energy resources decline under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    7. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    8. Liang, Yushi & Wu, Chunbing & Ji, Xiaodong & Zhang, Mulan & Li, Yiran & He, Jianjun & Qin, Zhiheng, 2022. "Estimation of the influences of spatiotemporal variations in air density on wind energy assessment in China based on deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    9. Guo, Junhong & Chen, Zhuo & Meng, Jing & Zheng, Heran & Fan, Yuri & Ji, Ling & Wang, Xiuquan & Liang, Xi, 2024. "Picturing China's photovoltaic energy future: Insights from CMIP6 climate projections," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PA).
    10. Yang, Weixin & Yang, Yunpeng & Chen, Hongmin, 2022. "How to stimulate Chinese energy companies to comply with emission regulations? Evidence from four-party evolutionary game analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    11. Ashok Bhansali & Namala Narasimhulu & Rocío Pérez de Prado & Parameshachari Bidare Divakarachari & Dayanand Lal Narayan, 2023. "A Review on Sustainable Energy Sources Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-18, August.
    12. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    13. Miao, Haozeyu & Xu, Haiming & Huang, Gang & Yang, Kai, 2023. "Evaluation and future projections of wind energy resources over the Northern Hemisphere in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 809-821.
    14. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2023. "Assessing the complementarity of future hybrid wind and solar photovoltaic energy resources for North America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. deCastro, M. & Rusu, L. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Ribeiro, A. & Costoya, X. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2024. "Different approaches to analyze the impact of future climate change on the exploitation of wave energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    2. Vu Dinh, Quang & Doan, Quang-Van & Ngo-Duc, Thanh & Nguyen Dinh, Van & Dinh Duc, Nguyen, 2022. "Offshore wind resource in the context of global climate change over a tropical area," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    3. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    4. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Nagababu, Garlapati & Srinivas, Bhasuru Abhinaya & Kachhwaha, Surendra Singh & Puppala, Harish & Kumar, Surisetty V.V.Arun, 2023. "Can offshore wind energy help to attain carbon neutrality amid climate change? A GIS-MCDM based analysis to unravel the facts using CORDEX-SA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(P1).
    6. He, J.Y. & Li, Q.S. & Chan, P.W. & Zhao, X.D., 2023. "Assessment of future wind resources under climate change using a multi-model and multi-method ensemble approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).
    7. Tolga Kara & Ahmet Duran Şahin, 2023. "Implications of Climate Change on Wind Energy Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-26, October.
    8. He, J.Y. & Chan, P.W. & Li, Q.S. & Tong, H.W., 2023. "Mapping future offshore wind resources in the South China Sea under climate change by regional climate modeling," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    9. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Feng, Z. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2021. "Climate change impacts on the future offshore wind energy resource in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 731-747.
    10. Kumarasamy Palanimuthu & Ganesh Mayilsamy & Ameerkhan Abdul Basheer & Seong-Ryong Lee & Dongran Song & Young Hoon Joo, 2022. "A Review of Recent Aerodynamic Power Extraction Challenges in Coordinated Pitch, Yaw, and Torque Control of Large-Scale Wind Turbine Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    11. Santos, F. & Gómez-Gesteira, M. & deCastro, M. & Añel, J.A. & Carvalho, D. & Costoya, Xurxo & Dias, J.M., 2018. "On the accuracy of CORDEX RCMs to project future winds over the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding ocean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 289-300.
    12. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao & Miao, Changhong & Yang, Fan, 2022. "Distributed onshore wind farm siting using intelligent optimization algorithm based on spatial and temporal variability of wind energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    13. Suomalainen, Kiti & Wen, Le & Sheng, Mingyue Selena & Sharp, Basil, 2022. "Climate change impact on the cost of decarbonisation in a hydro-based power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    15. Daniel Ganea & Elena Mereuta & Liliana Rusu, 2018. "Estimation of the Near Future Wind Power Potential in the Black Sea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-21, November.
    16. Martinez, A. & Iglesias, G., 2024. "Global wind energy resources decline under climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    17. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Arguilé-Pérez, B. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2022. "Combining offshore wind and solar photovoltaic energy to stabilize energy supply under climate change scenarios: A case study on the western Iberian Peninsula," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    18. Costoya, X. & Rocha, A. & Carvalho, D., 2020. "Using bias-correction to improve future projections of offshore wind energy resource: A case study on the Iberian Peninsula," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    19. Gao, Yang & Ma, Shaoxiu & Wang, Tao, 2019. "The impact of climate change on wind power abundance and variability in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    20. Costoya, X. & deCastro, M. & Carvalho, D. & Gómez-Gesteira, M., 2020. "On the suitability of offshore wind energy resource in the United States of America for the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:217:y:2021:i:c:s0360544220324282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.