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Climate change impacts in the energy supply of the Brazilian hydro-dominant power system

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  • de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo
  • Marangon Lima, Luana M.
  • Marangon Lima, José W.
  • da Silva, Benedito C.
  • Scianni, Luciana A.

Abstract

Over the past few years, there has been a growing global consensus related to the importance of renewable energy to minimize the emission of greenhouse gases. The solution is an increase in the number of renewable power plants but unfortunately, this leads to a high dependence on climate variables which are already affected by climate change. Brazil is one of the largest producers of electricity by renewables through its hydro-dominant power generation system. However, hydro-generation depends on water inflows that are directly affected by climate change that consequently affect the electricity production. Therefore, these changes need to be considered in the operation and planning of a hydro-dominant power system. In this paper, we present the effects of different climate scenarios in the water inflows produced by the regional Eta climate model. Normally, studies use an optimization model to make decisions in case of a hydro-thermal scheduling problem and use the assured energy to evaluate the hydro-production. In this analysis, water inflows used in the optimization process consider different trends according to its associated climate scenario. Our paper shows that climate change may drastically impact the system assured energy and consequently, the system's capability to supply load.

Suggested Citation

  • de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo & Marangon Lima, Luana M. & Marangon Lima, José W. & da Silva, Benedito C. & Scianni, Luciana A., 2016. "Climate change impacts in the energy supply of the Brazilian hydro-dominant power system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 379-389.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:99:y:2016:i:c:p:379-389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2016.07.022
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    9. de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo & Faria, Victor A.D. & Lima, Luana M.M. & Lima, José W.M., 2019. "Hydropower revenues under the threat of climate change in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 873-882.

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