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The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime

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  • Dehos, Fabian T.

Abstract

Does migration cause crime? Drawing on recent migratory flows to Germany, I address this question by distinguishing two types of migrants: asylum seekers and recognized refugees. Using German administrative panel data from 2010 to 2015, I add to the literature by disentangling the direct crime impact of both groups from indirect crime responses by other citizens. For asylum seekers, I exploit dispersal policies and locational restrictions and find no causal impact on crime except for migration-specific offenses. For recognized refugees, who may endogenously move, I apply a shift-share instrument and find a positive association between the share of recognized refugees and the overall crime rate, which is driven by non-violent property crimes and frauds. The empirical results are robust to several robustness checks and prove consistent with theoretical expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:88:y:2021:i:c:s0166046220303252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2020.103640
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    Cited by:

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    3. Lange, Martin & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2024. "Do refugees impact crime? Causal evidence from large-scale refugee immigration to Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Bernd Hayo & Duncan Roth, 2024. "The perceived impact of immigration on native workers' labour market outcomes," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202406, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    5. Endrich, Marek, 2022. "A gate to the world for all? The reaction of neighborhoods in Hamburg to refugee housings," ILE Working Paper Series 65, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    6. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2024. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Nelly Elmallakh & Jackline Wahba, 2023. "Syrian Refugees and the Migration Dynamics of Jordanians: Moving In or Moving Out?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1283-1330.
    9. Sumit S. Deole & Yue Huang, 2024. "Suffering and prejudice: do negative emotions predict immigration concerns?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-39, June.
    10. Emanuele Albarosa & Benjamin Elsner, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1183, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Albarosa, E. & Elsner, B., 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    12. Albarosa,Emanuele & Elsner,Benjamin, 2022. "Forced Migration, Social Cohesion and Conflict: The 2015 Refugee Inflow in Germany," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9913, The World Bank.
    13. Ludolph,Lars & Šedová,Barbora & Talevi,Marta, 2022. "Inequality and Security in the Aftermath of Internal Population Displacement Shocks :Evidence from Nigeria," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10053, The World Bank.
    14. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2022. "Do applications respond to changes in asylum policies in European countries?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Myers, Emily & Sacks, Audrey & Tellez, Juan F. & Wibbels, Erik, 2024. "Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    16. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2021. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-102, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Maghularia, Rita & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2023. "Do immigrants affect crime? Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 486-512.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugee migration; Crime;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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