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Do immigrants affect crime? Evidence for Germany

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  • Maghularia, Rita
  • Uebelmesser, Silke

Abstract

The paper empirically analyses the causal relationship between immigrants and crime using data for German administrative districts between 2008 and 2019. Before the refugee crisis (2008–2014), an increase in the current share of immigrants increased the total crime rate. In contrast, the effect was negative (or insignificant) during and after the refugee crisis (2015–2019). When analysing the total period, the estimates average out to zero. Studying more closely the composition of the migrant group, a plausible explanation of the negative (or insignificant) effect of immigrants on crime in the later period is related to a larger share of migrants with a less certain residence status.

Suggested Citation

  • Maghularia, Rita & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2023. "Do immigrants affect crime? Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 486-512.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:211:y:2023:i:c:p:486-512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2023.05.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Ramón Rey & Günther G. Schulze & Nikita Zakharov, 2024. "Transit Migration and Crime: Evidence from Colombia," Discussion Paper Series 44 JEL Classification: J1, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jan 2024.
    2. Daniel Auer & Michaela Slotwinski & Achim Ahrens & Dominik Hangartner & Selina Kurer & Stefanie Kurt & Alois Stutzer, 2024. "Social Assistance and Refugee Crime," CESifo Working Paper Series 11051, CESifo.
    3. Mustafa Özer & Jan Fidrmuc, 2024. "Does Immigration Affect the Natives’ Mental Health? Causal Evidence from Forced Syrian Migration to Turkey," CESifo Working Paper Series 11399, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigrants; Crime; Germany; IV approach; Dynamic adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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