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Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany

Author

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  • Huang, Yue

    (University of Trier)

  • Kvasnicka, Michael

    (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

Abstract

In the 2015 refugee crisis, nearly one million refugees came to Germany, raising concern that crimes against natives would rise. Using novel county-level data, we study this question empirically in first-difference and 2SLS regressions. Our results do not support the view that Germans were victimized in greater numbers by refugees as measured by their rate of victimization in crimes with refugee suspects. Our findings are of great policy and public interest, and also of material relevance for the broader literature on immigration and crime which considers only crimes per capita or variants thereof, but never actual crimes by foreigners against natives. We show that this shortcoming can lead to biased inference.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Yue & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2019. "Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12469, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12469
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    15. Aaron Chalfin, 2015. "The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in US Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 220-225, May.
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    17. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Bansak, Cynthia & Pozo, Susan, 2018. "Refugee Admissions and Public Safety: Are Refugee Settlement Areas More Prone to Crime?," IZA Discussion Papers 11612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Albarosa, Emanuele & Elsner, Benjamin, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 15850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Christopher Prömel, 2022. "Belonging or Estrangement – The European Refugee Crisis and its Effects on Immigrant Identity," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1160, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    3. Lange, Martin & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2024. "Do refugees impact crime? Causal evidence from large-scale refugee immigration to Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. Ramón Rey & Günther G. Schulze & Nikita Zakharov, 2024. "Transit Migration and Crime: Evidence from Colombia," Discussion Paper Series 44 JEL Classification: J1, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jan 2024.
    5. Bredtmann, Julia, 2022. "Immigration and electoral outcomes: Evidence from the 2015 refugee inflow to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Sumit S. Deole & Yue Huang, 2024. "Suffering and prejudice: do negative emotions predict immigration concerns?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-39, June.
    7. Prömel, Christopher, 2021. "Belonging or estrangement: The European refugee crisis and its effects on immigrant identity," Discussion Papers 2021/16, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    8. Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Emanuele Albarosa & Benjamin Elsner, 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1183, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    10. Albarosa, E. & Elsner, B., 2023. "Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    11. Deole, Sumit S. & Huang, Yue, 2020. "How do new immigration flows affect existing immigrants? Evidence from the refugee crisis in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 579, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    12. Albarosa,Emanuele & Elsner,Benjamin, 2022. "Forced Migration, Social Cohesion and Conflict: The 2015 Refugee Inflow in Germany," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9913, The World Bank.
    13. Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "The effects of exposure to refugees on crime: Evidence from the Greek islands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    14. Kayaoglu, Aysegul, 2022. "Do refugees cause crime?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Md. Thasinul Abedin & Rajarshi Mitra & Kanon Kumar Sen, 2022. "Does Refugee Inflow Increase Crime Rates in the United States?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1379-1401, December.
    16. Karaarslan, Can, 2020. "Growth, Wages and Unemployment - The Economic Impact of Refugee Migration on Europe: A Synthetic Control Analysis," Working Papers for Marketing & Management 51, Offenburg University, Department of Media and Information.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; refugees; crimes; crimes against natives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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