IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mar/magkse/202406.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The perceived impact of immigration on native workers' labour market outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Bernd Hayo

    (University of Marburg, School of Business and Economics)

  • Duncan Roth

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB))

Abstract

A sizeable literature analyses how immigration affects attitudes towards migrants and discusses differences between socio-economic groups and their potential correlation with perceived concerns about labour market competition. Against the background of the large-scale influx of refugees into Germany between 2015 and 2016, this paper uses data from a unique and representative survey of the German population to assess whether respondents express fears of job loss due to immigration. We focus on the importance of perceptions of migrants’ ability to do one’s job in relation to these fears. Moreover, we compare concerns about refugees with those about EU migrants. We propose several hypotheses regarding egotropic and sociotropic motives. Our findings indicate that: (i) respondents are more likely to view EU migrants as potential competitors in the labour market, (ii) workers in blue-collar occupations and without tertiary education are more likely to view migrants as potential competitors, and (iii) the perception of potential competition from migrants strongly predicts fear of job loss. Once we control for this perception, occupation and skill levels are no longer significantly related to the probability of reporting fear of job loss. Moreover, there are no longer significant differences between the two migrant groups. Anti-migrant sentiments are also associated with concerns about job loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Hayo & Duncan Roth, 2024. "The perceived impact of immigration on native workers' labour market outcomes," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202406, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2024/06-2024_hayo_roth.pdf
    File Function: First version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orrenius, Pia M. & Zavodny, Madeline, 2007. "Does immigration affect wages? A look at occupation-level evidence," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 757-773, October.
    2. David Card, 1990. "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 43(2), pages 245-257, January.
    3. Rachel M. Friedberg, 2001. "The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1373-1408.
    4. Christian Dustmann & Uta Schönberg & Jan Stuhler, 2017. "Labor Supply Shocks, Native Wages, and the Adjustment of Local Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 435-483.
    5. Dylong, Patrick & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Biased beliefs about immigration and economic concerns: Evidence from representative experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 453-482.
    6. Francesco Fasani & Tommaso Frattini & Luigi Minale, 2022. "(The Struggle for) Refugee integration into the labour market: evidence from Europe [Cashier or consultant? Entry labor market conditions, field of study, and career success]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 351-393.
    7. Courtney Brell & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2020. "The Labor Market Integration of Refugee Migrants in High-Income Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 94-121, Winter.
    8. George J. Borjas & Joan Monras, 2017. "The labour market consequences of refugee supply shocks," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 361-413.
    9. Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2016. "Patience and the Wealth of Nations," Working Papers 2016-012, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    10. Christian Dustmann & Tommaso Frattini & Ian P. Preston, 2013. "The Effect of Immigration along the Distribution of Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(1), pages 145-173.
    11. Berbée, Paul & Brücker, Herbert & Garloff, Alfred & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2022. "The labor demand effects of refugee immigration: Evidence from a natural experiment," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-069, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Semih Tumen, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Turkey," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 456-460, May.
    13. Andrew E. Clark, 2005. "Your Money or Your Life: Changing Job Quality in OECD Countries," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 377-400, September.
    14. Tomberg, Lukas & Smith Stegen, Karen & Vance, Colin, 2021. "“The mother of all political problems”? On asylum seekers and elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    15. Martin Halla & Alexander F. Wagner & Josef Zweimüller, 2017. "Immigration and Voting for the Far Right," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(6), pages 1341-1385.
    16. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 61-84, February.
    17. Cohen-Goldner, Sarit & Paserman, M. Daniele, 2011. "The dynamic impact of immigration on natives' labor market outcomes: Evidence from Israel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1027-1045.
    18. Gehrsitz, Markus & Ungerer, Martin, 2017. "Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 10494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher, 2020. "Labor market concerns and support for immigration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    20. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David B. Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2017. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," NBER Working Papers 23943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Armin Falk & Anke Becker & Thomas Dohmen & Benjamin Enke & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2018. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1645-1692.
    22. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2007. "Educated Preferences: Explaining Attitudes Toward Immigration in Europe," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 399-442, April.
    23. Zerrin Salikutluk & Johannes Giesecke & Martin Kroh, 2016. "Refugees Entered the Labor Market Later Than Other Migrants," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 6(34/35), pages 407-413.
    24. Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    25. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J. & Margalit, Yotam, 2015. "Do concerns about labor market competition shape attitudes toward immigration? New evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 193-207.
    26. Hainmueller, Jens & Hiscox, Michael J., 2010. "Attitudes toward Highly Skilled and Low-skilled Immigration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment—Erratum," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(3), pages 624-624, August.
    27. Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Labor Market Competition And Individual Preferences Over Immigration Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 133-145, February.
    28. Albrecht Glitz, 2012. "The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: A Quasi-Experiment Exploiting Immigrant Location Rules in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 175-213.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr, 2018. "The Effects of Immigration in Developed Countries: Insights from Recent Economic Research," CEPII Policy Brief 2018-22, CEPII research center.
    2. Chletsos Michael & Roupakias Stelios, 2019. "Do Immigrants Compete with Natives in the Greek Labour Market? Evidence from the Skill-Cell Approach before and during the Great Recession," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-30, April.
    3. Lebow, Jeremy, 2024. "Immigration and occupational downgrading in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Berbée, Paul & Brücker, Herbert & Garloff, Alfred & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2022. "The labor demand effects of refugee immigration: Evidence from a natural experiment," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-069, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Edo, Anthony & Rapoport, Hillel, 2019. "Minimum wages and the labor market effects of immigration," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    7. Bohnet, Lara & Peralta, Susana & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2022. "Cousins from Overseas: The Labour Market Impact of a Major Forced Return Migration Shock," IZA Discussion Papers 15595, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Aksu, Ege & Erzan, Refik & Kırdar, Murat Güray, 2022. "The impact of mass migration of Syrians on the Turkish labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Edo, Anthony & Özgüzel, Cem, 2023. "The impact of immigration on the employment dynamics of European regions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Lara Bohnet & Susana Peralta & Joao Pereira dos Santos, 2021. "Cousins from overseas: the labour market impact of half a million Portuguese repatriates," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2114, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    12. Noel Gaston & Douglas R. Nelson, 2013. "Bridging Trade Theory And Labour Econometrics: The Effects Of International Migration," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 98-139, February.
    13. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    14. Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Kırdar, Murat G., 2017. "Quasi-experimental impact estimates of immigrant labor supply shocks: The role of treatment and comparison group matching and relative skill composition," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 282-315.
    15. Sumit S. Deole & Yue Huang, 2024. "Suffering and prejudice: do negative emotions predict immigration concerns?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 1-39, June.
    16. Pablo Argote & Lucas Perelló, 2024. "Explaining the Impact of South-South Migration: Evidence from Chile’s Immigration Boom," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 2071-2093, December.
    17. Christoph Basten & Michael Siegenthaler, 2013. "Do immigrants take or create residents' jobs?," KOF Working papers 13-335, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Dylong, Patrick & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Biased beliefs about immigration and economic concerns: Evidence from representative experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 453-482.
    19. Gallegos Torres, Katia, 2021. "The 2015 refugee inflow and concerns over immigration," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-102, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Siegenthaler, Michael & Basten, Christoph, 2013. "Do immigrants take or create residents jobs? Quasi-experimental evidence from Switzerland," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79780, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration; labour market; job loss; competition; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernd Hayo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.