Syrian Refugees and the Migration Dynamics of Jordanians: Moving in or moving out?

This paper examines the impact of the Syrian refugee inflows on the migration dynamics of Jordanians. Using unique data from Jordan, we exploit the geographical distribution of Syrian refugees across Jordanian subdistricts and examine its impact on international, return and internal migration patterns of Jordanians. We rely on retrospective information to construct individual and household panel data before and after the beginning of the 2011 Syrian war. Using a Difference-in-Differences specification that takes into account unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the Syrian refugee inflows in Jordan do not have any effect on the international and return migration patterns of Jordanians. However, the Syrian presence increases the probability of Jordanian internal migration. Particularly, being a resident in camp governorates increases the probability of moving out while it decreases the probability of moving in. Our results are the first to show the impact of the massive refugee inflows on the host country’s migration dynamics.