IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v182y2019icp1-12.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Physics-based prognostics of lithium-ion battery using non-linear least squares with dynamic bounds

Author

Listed:
  • Downey, Austin
  • Lui, Yu-Hui
  • Hu, Chao
  • Laflamme, Simon
  • Hu, Shan

Abstract

Real-time health diagnostics/prognostics and predictive maintenance/control of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries are essential to reliable and safe battery operation. This paper presents a physics-based (or mechanistic) approach to Li-ion battery prognostics, which enables online prediction of remaining useful life (RUL) with consideration of multiple concurrent degradation mechanisms. In the proposed approach, robust online prediction of RUL is achieved by employing a non-linear least squares method with dynamic bounds that traces the evolution of individual degradation parameters. The novelty of this approach lies in its ability to incorporate mechanistic degradation analysis results into RUL predictions using nonlinear models. Results from a simulation study with eight Li-ion battery cells demonstrate that the mechanistic prognostics approach produces more accurate RUL predictions than a traditional capacity-based prognostics approach in 78 of the 80 cases considered (97.5% of the time). Additionally, it is shown that the use of dynamic bounds ensures a low level of uncertainty in the prediction throughout the entire life of a cell.

Suggested Citation

  • Downey, Austin & Lui, Yu-Hui & Hu, Chao & Laflamme, Simon & Hu, Shan, 2019. "Physics-based prognostics of lithium-ion battery using non-linear least squares with dynamic bounds," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:182:y:2019:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.09.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018302928
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2018.09.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Le Son, Khanh & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne & Levrat, Eric & Iung, Benoît, 2013. "Remaining useful life estimation based on stochastic deterioration models: A comparative study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 165-175.
    2. Jin, Guang & Matthews, David E. & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2013. "A Bayesian framework for on-line degradation assessment and residual life prediction of secondary batteries inspacecraft," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 7-20.
    3. Wang, Xiaolin & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy & Guo, Bo, 2014. "Residual life estimation based on a generalized Wiener degradation process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 13-23.
    4. Zheng, Xiujuan & Fang, Huajing, 2015. "An integrated unscented kalman filter and relevance vector regression approach for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life and short-term capacity prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 74-82.
    5. Fink, Olga & Zio, Enrico & Weidmann, Ulrich, 2014. "Predicting component reliability and level of degradation with complex-valued neural networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 198-206.
    6. Mishra, Madhav & Martinsson, Jesper & Rantatalo, Matti & Goebel, Kai, 2018. "Bayesian hierarchical model-based prognostics for lithium-ion batteries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 25-35.
    7. Xu, Xin & Chen, Nan, 2017. "A state-space-based prognostics model for lithium-ion battery degradation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 47-57.
    8. Hu, Chao & Jain, Gaurav & Tamirisa, Prabhakar & Gorka, Tom, 2014. "Method for estimating capacity and predicting remaining useful life of lithium-ion battery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 182-189.
    9. Lingling Li & Pengchong Wang & Kuei-Hsiang Chao & Yatong Zhou & Yang Xie, 2016. "Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Gaussian Processes Mixture," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-13, September.
    10. Xi, Zhimin & Jing, Rong & Wang, Pingfeng & Hu, Chao, 2014. "A copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 72-82.
    11. Wang, Hai-Kun & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Jin, Tongdan, 2017. "Near-extreme system condition and near-extreme remaining useful time for a group of products," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-110.
    12. Hu, Chao & Youn, Byeng D. & Wang, Pingfeng & Taek Yoon, Joung, 2012. "Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 120-135.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Phattara Khumprom & Nita Yodo, 2019. "A Data-Driven Predictive Prognostic Model for Lithium-ion Batteries based on a Deep Learning Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Tang, Ting & Yuan, Huimei, 2022. "A hybrid approach based on decomposition algorithm and neural network for remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Wang, Shunli & Fan, Yongcun & Jin, Siyu & Takyi-Aninakwa, Paul & Fernandez, Carlos, 2023. "Improved anti-noise adaptive long short-term memory neural network modeling for the robust remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    4. Guishuang Tian & Shaoping Wang & Jian Shi & Yajing Qiao, 2022. "State Estimation and Remaining Useful Life Prediction of PMSTM Based on a Combination of SIR and HSMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Nagulapati, Vijay Mohan & Lee, Hyunjun & Jung, DaWoon & Brigljevic, Boris & Choi, Yunseok & Lim, Hankwon, 2021. "Capacity estimation of batteries: Influence of training dataset size and diversity on data driven prognostic models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Xie, Lin & Ustolin, Federico & Lundteigen, Mary Ann & Li, Tian & Liu, Yiliu, 2022. "Performance analysis of safety barriers against cascading failures in a battery pack," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Bai, Guangxing & Su, Yunsheng & Rahman, Maliha Maisha & Wang, Zequn, 2023. "Prognostics of Lithium-Ion batteries using knowledge-constrained machine learning and Kalman filtering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    8. Liu, Xinyang & Zheng, Zhuoyuan & Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra & Zhou, Zhi & Wang, Pingfeng, 2021. "Battery asset management with cycle life prognosis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    9. Xu, Yanwen & Kohtz, Sara & Boakye, Jessica & Gardoni, Paolo & Wang, Pingfeng, 2023. "Physics-informed machine learning for reliability and systems safety applications: State of the art and challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    10. Wang, Jiaolong & Zhang, Fode & Zhang, Jianchuan & Liu, Wen & Zhou, Kuang, 2023. "A flexible RUL prediction method based on poly-cell LSTM with applications to lithium battery data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    11. Dong, Zhe & Li, Bowen & Li, Junyi & Huang, Xiaojin & Zhang, Zuoyi, 2022. "Online reliability assessment of energy systems based on a high-order extended-state-observer with application to nuclear reactors," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Liu, Yunpeng & Hou, Bo & Ahmed, Moin & Mao, Zhiyu & Feng, Jiangtao & Chen, Zhongwei, 2024. "A hybrid deep learning approach for remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries based on discharging fragments," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    13. Ma, Zhonghai & Liao, Haitao & Gao, Jianhang & Nie, Songlin & Geng, Yugang, 2023. "Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Degradation Modeling of an Electro-Hydrostatic Actuator System," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    14. He, Jiabei & Tian, Yi & Wu, Lifeng, 2022. "A hybrid data-driven method for rapid prediction of lithium-ion battery capacity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    15. Park, Hyung Jun & Kim, Nam H. & Choi, Joo-Ho, 2024. "A robust health prediction using Bayesian approach guided by physical constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Jianbo, 2018. "State of health prediction of lithium-ion batteries: Multiscale logic regression and Gaussian process regression ensemble," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 82-95.
    2. Xiaodong Xu & Chuanqiang Yu & Shengjin Tang & Xiaoyan Sun & Xiaosheng Si & Lifeng Wu, 2019. "Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on Wiener Processes with Considering the Relaxation Effect," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Bai, Guangxing & Su, Yunsheng & Rahman, Maliha Maisha & Wang, Zequn, 2023. "Prognostics of Lithium-Ion batteries using knowledge-constrained machine learning and Kalman filtering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.
    5. Malinowski, Simon & Chebel-Morello, Brigitte & Zerhouni, Noureddine, 2015. "Remaining useful life estimation based on discriminating shapelet extraction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 279-288.
    6. Liu, Xinyang & Zheng, Zhuoyuan & Büyüktahtakın, İ. Esra & Zhou, Zhi & Wang, Pingfeng, 2021. "Battery asset management with cycle life prognosis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Tang, Ting & Yuan, Huimei, 2022. "A hybrid approach based on decomposition algorithm and neural network for remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion battery," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Pang, Zhenan & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Du, Dangbo & Pei, Hong, 2021. "A Bayesian Inference for Remaining Useful Life Estimation by Fusing Accelerated Degradation Data and Condition Monitoring Data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    9. Ye, Zhi-Sheng & Chen, Nan & Shen, Yan, 2015. "A new class of Wiener process models for degradation analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 58-67.
    10. Xi, Zhimin & Zhao, Xiangxue, 2019. "An enhanced copula-based method for data-driven prognostics considering insufficient training units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 181-194.
    11. Fink, Olga & Zio, Enrico & Weidmann, Ulrich, 2014. "Predicting component reliability and level of degradation with complex-valued neural networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 198-206.
    12. Li, Yi & Liu, Kailong & Foley, Aoife M. & Zülke, Alana & Berecibar, Maitane & Nanini-Maury, Elise & Van Mierlo, Joeri & Hoster, Harry E., 2019. "Data-driven health estimation and lifetime prediction of lithium-ion batteries: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Zheng, Xiujuan & Fang, Huajing, 2015. "An integrated unscented kalman filter and relevance vector regression approach for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life and short-term capacity prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 74-82.
    14. Tianyu Liu & Zhengqiang Pan & Quan Sun & Jing Feng & Yanzhen Tang, 2017. "Residual useful life estimation for products with two performance characteristics based on a bivariate Wiener process," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(1), pages 69-80, February.
    15. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Du, Dang-Bo & Hu, Chang-Hua & Hu, Chen, 2020. "A novel iterative approach of lifetime estimation for standby systems with deteriorating spare parts," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    16. Shen, Sheng & Sadoughi, Mohammadkazem & Li, Meng & Wang, Zhengdao & Hu, Chao, 2020. "Deep convolutional neural networks with ensemble learning and transfer learning for capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    17. Li, Zhixiong & Wu, Dazhong & Hu, Chao & Terpenny, Janis, 2019. "An ensemble learning-based prognostic approach with degradation-dependent weights for remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 110-122.
    18. Zhou, Shirong & Tang, Yincai & Xu, Ancha, 2021. "A generalized Wiener process with dependent degradation rate and volatility and time-varying mean-to-variance ratio," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    19. Hai-Kun Wang & Yan-Feng Li & Yu Liu & Yuan-Jian Yang & Hong-Zhong Huang, 2015. "Remaining useful life estimation under degradation and shock damage," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(3), pages 200-208, June.
    20. Yan, Bingxin & Ma, Xiaobing & Yang, Li & Wang, Han & Wu, Tianyi, 2020. "A novel degradation-rate-volatility related effect Wiener process model with its extension to accelerated ageing data analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:182:y:2019:i:c:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.