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An ensemble learning-based prognostic approach with degradation-dependent weights for remaining useful life prediction

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  • Li, Zhixiong
  • Wu, Dazhong
  • Hu, Chao
  • Terpenny, Janis

Abstract

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is crucial for the implementation of predictive maintenance strategies. While significant research has been conducted in model-based and data-driven prognostics, there has been little research reported on the RUL prediction using an ensemble learning method that combines prediction results from multiple learning algorithms. The objective of this research is to introduce a new ensemble prognostics method that takes into account the effects of degradation on the accuracy of RUL prediction. Specifically, this method assigns an optimized, degradation-dependent weight to each learner (i.e., learning algorithm) such that the weighted sum of the prediction results from all the learners predicts the RULs of engineered systems with better accuracy. The ensemble prognostics method is demonstrated using two case studies. One case study is to predict the RULs of aircraft bearings; the other is to predict the RULs of aircraft engines. The numerical results have shown that the predictive model trained by the ensemble learning-based prognostic approach with degradation-dependent weights is capable of outperforming the original ensemble learning-based approach and its member algorithms.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zhixiong & Wu, Dazhong & Hu, Chao & Terpenny, Janis, 2019. "An ensemble learning-based prognostic approach with degradation-dependent weights for remaining useful life prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 110-122.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:184:y:2019:i:c:p:110-122
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.12.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xi, Zhimin & Jing, Rong & Wang, Pingfeng & Hu, Chao, 2014. "A copula-based sampling method for data-driven prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 72-82.
    2. Hu, Chao & Youn, Byeng D. & Wang, Pingfeng & Taek Yoon, Joung, 2012. "Ensemble of data-driven prognostic algorithms for robust prediction of remaining useful life," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 120-135.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Xiao, Dasheng & Lin, Zhifu & Yu, Aiyang & Tang, Ke & Xiao, Hong, 2024. "Data-driven method embedded physical knowledge for entire lifecycle degradation monitoring in aircraft engines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    4. Sunwen Du & Guorui Feng & Jianmin Wang & Shizhe Feng & Reza Malekian & Zhixiong Li, 2019. "A New Machine-Learning Prediction Model for Slope Deformation of an Open-Pit Mine: An Evaluation of Field Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Cao, Mengda & Zhang, Tao & Liu, Yajie & Zhang, Yajun & Wang, Yu & Li, Kaiwen, 2022. "An ensemble learning prognostic method for capacity estimation of lithium-ion batteries based on the V-IOWGA operator," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    6. Xu, Yanwen & Kohtz, Sara & Boakye, Jessica & Gardoni, Paolo & Wang, Pingfeng, 2023. "Physics-informed machine learning for reliability and systems safety applications: State of the art and challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
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    8. Xi, Zhimin & Zhao, Xiangxue, 2019. "An enhanced copula-based method for data-driven prognostics considering insufficient training units," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 181-194.

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