IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v113y2013icp7-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian framework for on-line degradation assessment and residual life prediction of secondary batteries inspacecraft

Author

Listed:
  • Jin, Guang
  • Matthews, David E.
  • Zhou, Zhongbao

Abstract

The paper presents a Bayesian framework consisting of off-line population degradation modeling and on-line degradation assessment and residual life prediction for secondary batteries in the field. We use a Wiener process with random drift, diffusion coefficient and measurement error to characterize the off-line population degradation of secondary battery capacity, thereby capturing several sources of uncertainty including unit-to-unit variation, time uncertainty and stochastic correlation. Via maximum likelihood, and using observed capacity data with unknown measurement error, we estimate the parameters in this off-line population model. To achieve the requirements for on-line degradation assessment and residual life prediction, we exploit a particle filter-based state and static parameter joint estimation method, by which the posterior degradation model is updated iteratively and the degradation state of an individual battery is estimated at the sametime.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Guang & Matthews, David E. & Zhou, Zhongbao, 2013. "A Bayesian framework for on-line degradation assessment and residual life prediction of secondary batteries inspacecraft," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 7-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:113:y:2013:i:c:p:7-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2012.12.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832012002670
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2012.12.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    2. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2011. "Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Wang, Xiao, 2010. "Wiener processes with random effects for degradation data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 340-351, February.
    4. Keedy, Elias & Feng, Qianmei, 2012. "A physics-of-failure based reliability and maintenance modeling framework for stent deployment and operation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 94-101.
    5. Nicholas G. Polson & Jonathan R. Stroud & Peter Müller, 2008. "Practical filtering with sequential parameter learning," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(2), pages 413-428, April.
    6. Chookah, M. & Nuhi, M. & Modarres, M., 2011. "A probabilistic physics-of-failure model for prognostic health management of structures subject to pitting and corrosion-fatigue," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(12), pages 1601-1610.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Jian-Xun & Hu, Chang-Hua & He, Xiao & Si, Xiao-Sheng & Liu, Yang & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2017. "Lifetime prognostics for deteriorating systems with time-varying random jumps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 338-350.
    2. Lin, Yan-Hui & Li, Yan-Fu & Zio, Enrico, 2018. "A comparison between Monte Carlo simulation and finite-volume scheme for reliability assessment of multi-state physics systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-11.
    3. Zhengxin Zhang & Xiaosheng Si & Changhua Hu & Xiangyu Kong, 2015. "Degradation modeling–based remaining useful life estimation: A review on approaches for systems with heterogeneity," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 229(4), pages 343-355, August.
    4. Le Son, Khanh & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne & Levrat, Eric & Iung, Benoît, 2013. "Remaining useful life estimation based on stochastic deterioration models: A comparative study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 165-175.
    5. Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel & Czellar , Veronika, 2011. "state-observation sampling and the econometrics of learning models," HEC Research Papers Series 947, HEC Paris.
    6. Pierre Del Moral & Ajay Jasra & Yan Zhou, 2017. "Biased Online Parameter Inference for State-Space Models," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 727-749, September.
    7. Naoki Awaya & Yasuhiro Omori, 2019. "Particle rolling MCMC," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1110, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    8. Rutger Jan Lange, 2020. "Bellman filtering for state-space models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-052/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 May 2021.
    9. Wang, Xiaolin & Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy & Guo, Bo, 2014. "Residual life estimation based on a generalized Wiener degradation process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 13-23.
    10. Naoki Awaya & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "Particle rolling MCMC with Double Block Sampling: Conditional SMC Update Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1066, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Zhang, Zhengxin & Si, Xiaosheng & Hu, Changhua & Lei, Yaguo, 2018. "Degradation data analysis and remaining useful life estimation: A review on Wiener-process-based methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(3), pages 775-796.
    12. Shengjin Tang & Xiaosong Guo & Zhijie Zhou, 2014. "Mis-specification analysis of linear Wiener process–based degradation models for the remaining useful life estimation," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(5), pages 478-487, October.
    13. Sakurahara, Tatsuya & O'Shea, Nicholas & Cheng, Wen-Chi & Zhang, Sai & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Shengjin Tang & Chuanqiang Yu & Xue Wang & Xiaosong Guo & Xiaosheng Si, 2014. "Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries Based on the Wiener Process with Measurement Error," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-28, January.
    15. Turnbull, Kathryn & Nemeth, Christopher & Nunes, Matthew & McCormick, Tyler, 2023. "Sequential estimation of temporally evolving latent space network models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    16. Zhang, Nan & Fouladirad, Mitra & Barros, Anne, 2019. "Reliability-based measures and prognostic analysis of a K-out-of-N system in a random environment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(3), pages 1120-1131.
    17. Chang, Mingu & Lee, Jongsoo, 2020. "Early stage data-based probabilistic wear life prediction and maintenance interval optimization of driving wheels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    18. Chen, Ying & Yang, Liu & Ye, Cui & Kang, Rui, 2015. "Failure mechanism dependence and reliability evaluation of non-repairable system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 273-283.
    19. Ye, Zhi-Sheng & Chen, Nan & Shen, Yan, 2015. "A new class of Wiener process models for degradation analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 58-67.
    20. Faisal Khan & Omer F. Eker & Atif Khan & Wasim Orfali, 2018. "Adaptive Degradation Prognostic Reasoning by Particle Filter with a Neural Network Degradation Model for Turbofan Jet Engine," Data, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-21, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:113:y:2013:i:c:p:7-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.