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Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

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  • Son, Junbo
  • Zhou, Shiyu
  • Sankavaram, Chaitanya
  • Du, Xinyu
  • Zhang, Yilu

Abstract

In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries.

Suggested Citation

  • Son, Junbo & Zhou, Shiyu & Sankavaram, Chaitanya & Du, Xinyu & Zhang, Yilu, 2016. "Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 38-50.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:152:y:2016:i:c:p:38-50
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.02.006
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    Cited by:

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    7. Wang, Yilin & Li, Yuanxiang & Zhang, Yuxuan & Lei, Jia & Yu, Yifei & Zhang, Tongtong & Yang, Yongshen & Zhao, Honghua, 2024. "Incorporating prior knowledge into self-supervised representation learning for long PHM signal," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    8. Jahani, Salman & Zhou, Shiyu & Veeramani, Dharmaraj, 2021. "Stochastic prognostics under multiple time-varying environmental factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    9. Chen, Zhen & Li, Yaping & Xia, Tangbin & Pan, Ershun, 2019. "Hidden Markov model with auto-correlated observations for remaining useful life prediction and optimal maintenance policy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 123-136.
    10. Jain, Amit Kumar & Lad, Bhupesh Kumar, 2020. "Prognosticating RULs while exploiting the future characteristics of operating profiles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    11. Paulino José García Nieto & Esperanza García-Gonzalo & Antonio Bernardo Sánchez & Marta Menéndez Fernández, 2016. "A New Predictive Model Based on the ABC Optimized Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines Approach for Predicting the Remaining Useful Life in Aircraft Engines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-19, May.
    12. Liu, Xingheng & Matias, José & Jäschke, Johannes & Vatn, Jørn, 2022. "Gibbs sampler for noisy Transformed Gamma process: Inference and remaining useful life estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    13. Li, Kailing & Xie, Naiming, 2024. "Battery health prognostics based on improved incremental capacity using a hybrid grey modelling and Gaussian process regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    14. Liu, Yingchao & Hu, Xiaofeng & Zhang, Wenjuan, 2019. "Remaining useful life prediction based on health index similarity," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 502-510.
    15. Chen, Zewang & Shi, Na & Ji, Yufan & Niu, Mu & Wang, Youren, 2021. "Lithium-ion batteries remaining useful life prediction based on BLS-RVM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    16. Park, Hyung Jun & Kim, Nam H. & Choi, Joo-Ho, 2024. "A robust health prediction using Bayesian approach guided by physical constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).

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