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A particle filtering and kernel smoothing-based approach for new design component prognostics

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  • Hu, Yang
  • Baraldi, Piero
  • Di Maio, Francesco
  • Zio, Enrico

Abstract

This work addresses the problem of predicting the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of components for which a mathematical model describing the component degradation is available, but the values of the model parameters are not known and the observations of degradation trajectories in similar components are unavailable. The proposed approach solves this problem by using a Particle Filtering (PF) technique combined with a kernel smoothing (KS) method. This PF–KS method can simultaneously estimate the degradation state and the unknown parameters in the degradation model, while significantly overcoming the problem of particle impoverishment. Based on the updated degradation model (where the unknown parameters are replaced by the estimated ones), the RUL prediction is then performed by simulating future particles evolutions. A numerical application regarding prognostics for Lithium-ion batteries is considered. Various performance indicators measuring precision, accuracy, steadiness and risk of the obtained RUL predictions are computed. The obtained results show that the proposed PF–KS method can provide more satisfactory results than the traditional PF methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Yang & Baraldi, Piero & Di Maio, Francesco & Zio, Enrico, 2015. "A particle filtering and kernel smoothing-based approach for new design component prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 19-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:134:y:2015:i:c:p:19-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. An, Dawn & Choi, Joo-Ho & Kim, Nam Ho, 2013. "Prognostics 101: A tutorial for particle filter-based prognostics algorithm using Matlab," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 161-169.
    7. Si, Xiao-Sheng & Wang, Wenbin & Hu, Chang-Hua & Zhou, Dong-Hua, 2011. "Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 1-14, August.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chang, Yang & Fang, Huajing & Zhang, Yong, 2017. "A new hybrid method for the prediction of the remaining useful life of a lithium-ion battery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 1564-1578.
    3. Chang, Yang & Fang, Huajing, 2019. "A hybrid prognostic method for system degradation based on particle filter and relevance vector machine," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 51-63.
    4. Wang, Hai-Kun & Li, Yan-Feng & Huang, Hong-Zhong & Jin, Tongdan, 2017. "Near-extreme system condition and near-extreme remaining useful time for a group of products," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 103-110.
    5. Ma, Guijun & Zhang, Yong & Cheng, Cheng & Zhou, Beitong & Hu, Pengchao & Yuan, Ye, 2019. "Remaining useful life prediction of lithium-ion batteries based on false nearest neighbors and a hybrid neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Zhiguo Zeng & Francesco Di Maio & Enrico Zio & Rui Kang, 2017. "A hierarchical decision-making framework for the assessment of the prediction capability of prognostic methods," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(1), pages 36-52, February.
    7. Zheng, Xiujuan & Fang, Huajing, 2015. "An integrated unscented kalman filter and relevance vector regression approach for lithium-ion battery remaining useful life and short-term capacity prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 74-82.
    8. Yu, Jianbo, 2018. "State of health prediction of lithium-ion batteries: Multiscale logic regression and Gaussian process regression ensemble," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 82-95.
    9. Luca Pinciroli & Piero Baraldi & Guido Ballabio & Michele Compare & Enrico Zio, 2021. "Deep Reinforcement Learning Based on Proximal Policy Optimization for the Maintenance of a Wind Farm with Multiple Crews," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-17, October.
    10. Cremona, Marzia A. & Liu, Binbin & Hu, Yang & Bruni, Stefano & Lewis, Roger, 2016. "Predicting railway wheel wear under uncertainty of wear coefficient, using universal kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 49-59.
    11. Lin Zou & Baoyi Wen & Yiying Wei & Yong Zhang & Jie Yang & Hui Zhang, 2022. "Online Prediction of Remaining Useful Life for Li-Ion Batteries Based on Discharge Voltage Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    12. Chang, Mingu & Lee, Jongsoo, 2020. "Early stage data-based probabilistic wear life prediction and maintenance interval optimization of driving wheels," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    13. Ying Zhang & Tao Yang & Hongkuan Zhou & Dongzhen Lyu & Wei Zheng & Xianling Li, 2023. "A Prognosis Method for Condenser Fouling Based on Differential Modeling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-23, August.

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