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Accident precursors, near misses, and warning signs: Critical review and formal definitions within the framework of Discrete Event Systems

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  • Saleh, Joseph H.
  • Saltmarsh, Elizabeth A.
  • Favarò, Francesca M.
  • Brevault, Loïc

Abstract

An important consideration in safety analysis and accident prevention is the identification of and response to accident precursors. These off-nominal events are opportunities to recognize potential accident pathogens, identify overlooked accident sequences, and make technical and organizational decisions to address them before further escalation can occur. When handled properly, the identification of precursors provides an opportunity to interrupt an accident sequence from unfolding; when ignored or missed, precursors may only provide tragic proof after the fact that an accident was preventable.

Suggested Citation

  • Saleh, Joseph H. & Saltmarsh, Elizabeth A. & Favarò, Francesca M. & Brevault, Loïc, 2013. "Accident precursors, near misses, and warning signs: Critical review and formal definitions within the framework of Discrete Event Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 148-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:114:y:2013:i:c:p:148-154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.01.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Saleh, J.H. & Marais, K.B. & Bakolas, E. & Cowlagi, R.V., 2010. "Highlights from the literature on accident causation and system safety: Review of major ideas, recent contributions, and challenges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1105-1116.
    2. Rocco S., Claudio M. & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose Emmanuel, 2012. "Innovative approaches for addressing old challenges in component importance measures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 123-130.
    3. Vinnem, Jan Erik & Hestad, Jon Andreas & Kvaløy, Jan Terje & Skogdalen, Jon Espen, 2010. "Analysis of root causes of major hazard precursors (hydrocarbon leaks) in the Norwegian offshore petroleum industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1142-1153.
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    1. Andriulo, S. & Gnoni, M.G., 2014. "Measuring the effectiveness of a near-miss management system: An application in an automotive firm supplier," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 154-162.
    2. Yongliang Deng & Liangliang Song & Zhipeng Zhou & Ping Liu, 2017. "An Approach for Understanding and Promoting Coal Mine Safety by Exploring Coal Mine Risk Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-17, October.
    3. Wang, Fan & Li, Heng & Dong, Chao, 2021. "Understanding near-miss count data on construction sites using greedy D-vine copula marginal regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    4. Foreman, Veronica L. & Favaró, Francesca M. & Saleh, Joseph H. & Johnson, Christopher W., 2015. "Software in military aviation and drone mishaps: Analysis and recommendations for the investigation process," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 101-111.
    5. Xie, Shuyi & Huang, Zimeng & Wu, Gang & Luo, Jinheng & Li, Lifeng & Ma, Weifeng & Wang, Bohong, 2024. "Combining precursor and Cloud Leaky noisy-OR logic gate Bayesian network for dynamic probability analysis of major accidents in the oil depots," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Westreich, Sara & Perlman, Yael & Winkler, Michael, 2021. "Analysis and Implications of the Management of Near-Miss Events: A Game Theoretic Approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Silvia Maria Ansaldi & Patrizia Agnello & Annalisa Pirone & Maria Rosaria Vallerotonda, 2021. "Near Miss Archive: A Challenge to Share Knowledge among Inspectors and Improve Seveso Inspections," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Stroeve, Sybert H. & Som, Pradip & van Doorn, Bas A. & (Bert) Bakker, G.J., 2016. "Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 93-108.
    9. Chen, Yinuo & Tian, Zhigang & He, Rui & Wang, Yifei & Xie, Shuyi, 2023. "Discovery of potential risks for the gas transmission station using monitoring data and the OOBN method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Rui Huang & Hui Liu & Hongliang Ma & Yujie Qiang & Kai Pan & Xiaoqing Gou & Xin Wang & Dong Ye & Haining Wang & Adam Glowacz, 2022. "Accident Prevention Analysis: Exploring the Intellectual Structure of a Research Field," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-26, July.

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