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Labour market impacts of the China shock: Why the tide of Globalisation did not lift all boats

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  • Dorn, David
  • Levell, Peter

Abstract

The 1990s and 2000s saw a dramatic expansion in global goods trade. China rapidly emerged as the world's leading exporter while manufacturing employment in many high-income countries plummeted. Guided by textbook models that assumed frictionless labour markets and balanced trade, economists long maintained the view that trade had only modest labour market impacts and was not an important contributor to rising inequalities in high-income countries. We review recent evidence on the impacts of rapidly rising import competition from China on a broad range of outcomes in high-income countries. Import competition led to employment and wage losses that were heavily concentrated among the employees of exposed industries and individuals residing in local labour markets where such industries clustered, while consumer gains from lower goods prices were much more evenly distributed in the population. The disruptive effects of trade were particularly salient in countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom where a rapid growth of imports did not coincide with a commensurate expansion of own exports. Local labour markets facing greater import competition also experienced deteriorations in terms of health outcomes, crime, and family structures, and they became more likely to support far right politicians. We discuss several policy options to support the losers from globalisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2024. "Labour market impacts of the China shock: Why the tide of Globalisation did not lift all boats," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s0927537124001258
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102629
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; Globalisation; Inequality; Employment; Wages; Consumer prices; Public policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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