IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/worlde/v45y2022i11p3559-3601.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Shuhei Kainuma
  • Yukiko U. Saito

Abstract

How do imports from China affect local labour markets in Japan? We examine this question using commuting zones as regional units and analysing shock propagation through supply chains and co‐location patterns. Applying the method proposed by Autor et al. (American Economic Review, 103, 2121, 2013) and Acemoglu, Autor et al. (Journal of Labor Economics, 34, S141, 2016), we examine the impact of import shocks on regional manufacturing employment using input–output tables which allows us to investigate the propagation of shocks to both upstream and downstream industries and to relate the regional impact to industry co‐location patterns. We find that the negative direct effect on local employment is underestimated in previous studies that do not consider the regional propagation of the shock through supply chains, especially the positive shock to downstream industries. Downstream industries in Japan, for example, significantly benefit from imports from China as they lower input prices and increase employment. In contrast to downstream industries, we find no significant impact on upstream industries. Our results imply that the direct negative effect on local labour markets is somewhat mitigated by effects on downstream industries within the same region.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuhei Kainuma & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "China's impact on regional employment: Propagation through input–output linkages and co‐location patterns," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3559-3601, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:45:y:2022:i:11:p:3559-3601
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13251
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/twec.13251?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2016. "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 205-240, October.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Mirko Draca & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Trade Induced Technical Change? The Impact of Chinese Imports on Innovation, IT and Productivity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 87-117.
    3. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Brendan Price, 2016. "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 141-198.
    5. Balsvik, Ragnhild & Jensen, Sissel & Salvanes, Kjell G., 2015. "Made in China, sold in Norway: Local labor market effects of an import shock," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 137-144.
    6. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
    7. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    8. De Lyon, Josh & Pessoa, Joao Paulo, 2021. "Worker and firm responses to trade shocks: The UK-China case," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    10. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    11. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Gary Pisano & Pian Shu, 2020. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from US Patents," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 357-374, September.
    12. Nobuaki Yamashita & Isamu Yamauchi, 2020. "Innovation responses of Japanese firms to Chinese import competition," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 60-80, January.
    13. Clément Malgouyres, 2017. "The Impact Of Chinese Import Competition On The Local Structure Of Employment And Wages: Evidence From France," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 411-441, June.
    14. Jaerim Choi & Mingzhi Xu, 2020. "The labor market effects of the China Syndrome: Evidence from South Korean manufacturing," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 3039-3087, November.
    15. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    16. Michael Porter, 2003. "The Economic Performance of Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6-7), pages 549-578.
    17. Lee G. Branstetter & Brian K. Kovak & Jacqueline Mauro & Ana Venancio, 2019. "The China Shock and Employment in Portuguese Firms," NBER Working Papers 26252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Ellison, Glenn & Glaeser, Edward L, 1997. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 889-927, October.
    19. Pol Antràs & Teresa C. Fort & Felix Tintelnot, 2017. "The Margins of Global Sourcing: Theory and Evidence from US Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(9), pages 2514-2564, September.
    20. Lorenzo Caliendo & Maximiliano Dvorkin & Fernando Parro, 2019. "Trade and Labor Market Dynamics: General Equilibrium Analysis of the China Trade Shock," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 741-835, May.
    21. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    22. Diodato, Dario & Neffke, Frank & O’Clery, Neave, 2018. "Why do industries coagglomerate? How Marshallian externalities differ by industry and have evolved over time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-26.
    23. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2021. "Adjusting to Globalization in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 263-302.
    24. Glenn Ellison & Edward L. Glaeser & William R. Kerr, 2010. "What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1195-1213, June.
    25. Italo Colantone & Piero Stanig, 2018. "The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(4), pages 936-953, October.
    26. Colantone, Italo & Stanig, Piero, 2018. "Global Competition and Brexit," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 201-218, May.
    27. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & Brian K. Kovak, 2017. "Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 2908-2946, October.
    28. Emma Howard & Carol Newman & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Measuring industry coagglomeration and identifying the driving forces," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 1055-1078.
    29. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    30. Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei & Xinding Yu & Kunfu Zhu, 2018. "Re-examining the Effects of Trading with China on Local Labor Markets: A Supply Chain Perspective," NBER Working Papers 24886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Vicente Donoso & V�ctor Mart�n & Asier Minondo, 2015. "Do Differences in the Exposure to Chinese Imports Lead to Differences in Local Labour Market Outcomes? An Analysis for Spanish Provinces," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(10), pages 1746-1764, October.
    32. Taniguchi, Mina, 2019. "The effect of an increase in imports from China on local labor markets in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-18.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. SAITO Yukiko & KAINUMA Shuhei & Michal FABINGER, 2020. "China's Impact on Regional Employment: Propagation through Supply Chains and Co-agglomeration Pattern," Discussion papers 20054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins & João Pereira dos Santos & Mariana Tavares, 2021. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 570-600, April.
    3. Redding, Stephen, 2020. "Trade and Geography," CEPR Discussion Papers 15268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Lee Branstetter & Ana Venancio & Brian Kovak, 2019. "The China Shock and Portuguese Manufacturing," 2019 Meeting Papers 1051, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Kozo Kiyota & Sawako Maruyama & Mina Taniguchi, 2021. "The China syndrome: A cross‐country evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2758-2792, September.
    7. Zhi, Yan & Bao, Di & Luo, Changyuan, 2019. "The China effect: Evidence from data at firm level in Thailand," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 1-1.
    8. Colantone, Italo & Crinò, Rosario & Ogliari, Laura, 2019. "Globalization and mental distress," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 181-207.
    9. Luca Citino & Andrea Linarello, 2022. "The impact of Chinese import competition on Italian manufacturing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 702-731, August.
    10. Akira Sasahara, 2022. "The Empirics of the China Trade Shock: A Summary of Estimation Methods and A Literature Review," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-008, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    11. Daniel Lind, 2022. "The China Effect on Manufacturing Productivity in the United States and Other High-income Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 33-62, Spring.
    12. Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor & Levell, Peter & Parey, Matthias, 2023. "Household Responses to Trade Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 16032, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Magli, Martina, 2022. "The Spillover Effect of Services Offshoring on Local Labour Markets," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 351, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    14. Magli, Martina, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118048, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Martina Magli, 2020. "The Direct and Indirect Effect of Services Offshoring on Local Labour Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8413, CESifo.
    16. Kvedaras, Virmantas & Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2021. "China’s WTO accession and income inequality in European regions: External pressure and internal adjustments," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 34-53.
    17. Toshiyuki Matsuura, 2022. "Heterogeneous impact of import competition on firm organisation: Evidence from Japanese firm‐level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2251-2269, July.
    18. Zhuhua Jiang & Chizheng Miao & Jose Arreola Hernandez & Seong-Min Yoon, 2022. "Effect of Increasing Import Competition from China on the Local Labor Market: Evidence from Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, February.
    19. Martina Magli, 2022. "The spillover effect of services offshoring on local labour markets," CEP Discussion Papers dp1892, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    20. Andreas M. Fischer & Philipp Herkenhoff & Philip Sauré, 2023. "Identifying Chinese supply shocks: Effects of trade on labor markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1476-1507, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:45:y:2022:i:11:p:3559-3601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0378-5920 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.